Three updated MLB win totals I like

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

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It’s fun to look at “on pace” statistics throughout the course of the MLB season. Early in the year, we get outlandish numbers like “Aaron Judge is on pace for 144 home runs” or “Jose Ramirez is on pace for 200 RBI”. As the season goes along, some sportsbooks put up season win totals periodically or have running numbers throughout the course of the season.

Using the schedule and the respective situations for each team, you can find some good value in betting the alternate win total lines.

With that in mind, here are three adjusted season win total bets worth considering (odds from DraftKings Sportsbook):

Los Angeles Angels Under 75.5 Wins

The Angels are on just a 69-win pace, so this number clearly has not been adjusted enough. Right now, the only team that clearly looks worse than the Angels in the AL West is the Athletics. The Rangers are 5-20 in one-run games, so they are a positive regression candidate. The Mariners ride a 14-game win streak into the second half. The Astros are one of the league’s best teams and only play Seattle seven more times, all in the next week and a half.

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