It’s fun to look at “on pace” statistics throughout the course of the MLB season. Early in the year, we get outlandish numbers like “Aaron Judge is on pace for 144 home runs” or “Jose Ramirez is on pace for 200 RBI”. As the season goes along, some sportsbooks put up season win totals periodically or have running numbers throughout the course of the season.
Using the schedule and the respective situations for each team, you can find some good value in betting the alternate win total lines.
With that in mind, here are three adjusted season win total bets worth considering (odds from DraftKings Sportsbook):
Los Angeles Angels Under 75.5 Wins
The Angels are on just a 69-win pace, so this number clearly has not been adjusted enough. Right now, the only team that clearly looks worse than the Angels in the AL West is the Athletics. The Rangers are 5-20 in one-run games, so they are a positive regression candidate. The Mariners ride a 14-game win streak into the second half. The Astros are one of the league’s best teams and only play Seattle seven more times, all in the next week and a half.
The Angels will eventually slow down Shohei Ohtani’s innings. Mike Trout has been hurt over the last few weeks and hasn’t been swinging a productive bat. The Angels have very few noteworthy prospects to inject some life and talent into the ballclub. There are no redeeming qualities for this team with a lame-duck interim manager in Phil Nevin and more changes coming after the season. This team has certainly bottomed out over the last two months, but there aren’t many reasons for renewed hope in the second half.
Colorado Rockies Under 71.5 Wins
The Rockies are on pace for 75 wins, but oddsmakers have correctly isolated the fact that Colorado plays nine more road games than home games the rest of the way. Colorado has 69 games left and 28 remain against the Dodgers, Giants and Padres, who will all be in the playoff mix for wild-card spots or seeding.
Colorado’s home/road splits are extreme once again this season. They are 28-23 at home, but just 15-27 on the road, including a difference of nearly three runs scored per game. The Rockies offense has managed just over three runs per contest on the road, so the schedule isn’t very kind in that regard.
This is also a team that could lose some decent talent at the trade deadline, including CJ Cron and probably a couple of relievers. Colorado has not done a good job of drafting and developing talent, so there won’t be a lot of help coming from the minors, either.
Atlanta Braves Over 94.5 Wins
The Braves are 18-18 when Ronald Acuna Jr. is not in the lineup; they are 38-20 when he is. This has been a different team since he returned in May and one loaded with depth on the position player side and the pitching side. Atlanta still has 12 games left with the Mets that will decide the division, but they’ve been really good against most of their opponents.
The Phillies are going to miss Bryce Harper more and more as the season goes along and their ongoing bullpen issues will continue to be at the forefront. The Marlins can’t hit and the Nationals are bad -- and could end up trading Juan Soto. It’s unfortunate that Atlanta only has six games left with Washington, but those games should go very well.
The Braves are now on pace for 96.5 wins, but they’ve played at a 106-win pace with Acuna in the lineup. This team is really good again and may even be better than last year’s World Series winner.