Three NFL props I'm playing in Week 11

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

November 17, 2022 12:36 AM
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Extreme weather events like what we’re seeing in Buffalo are going to grab a lot of headlines, but checking the forecast is essential at this time of the season. There will be a lot of cold weather and windy conditions the rest of the way and those elements are going to dictate gameplans, play selection and even player usage. You can find some good prop betting value as a result.

Think about what happens with warm-weather teams coming north, cold-weather teams coming south, quarterbacks with limited experience in adverse weather and all of the other factors that come into play with a game script and you should find some strong positions to take.

Here are three prop bets to consider for Week 11:

Saquon Barkley (NYG) Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The Giants are only a field goal favorite against the Lions, but I like New York this week and feel like they match up really well in this game. My handicap is that they’re going to be able to play from in front and that means utilizing Barkley as a runner, like they’ve done in games with leads throughout the course of the season. Barkley is the league’s leading rusher in yards and yards per game and I expect to see the Giants handing the ball off to him, rather than using him as a pass catcher.

Barkley has only gone over this number in one of his last four games and two of his last six games because the Giants have preferred to give him touches as a runner. He ran 35 times last week in 55 snaps and only had one target and one reception for eight yards. Against a Lions defense that ranks 29th in Rush EPA against and 27th in Rush Success Rate against, Barkley should be in the backfield getting the ball going downhill a lot in this game.

Brian Robinson Jr. Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Robinson and Antonio Gibson were in a timeshare with the snaps last week, but it was Robinson that had 26 carries against the 14 that Gibson recorded. Against a Texans team that ranks 31st in Rush Success Rate against and 27th in Rush EPA against, the Commanders should be able to have success running the ball. Robinson has 93 carries in his six games and has had at least 17 rushing attempts in three of his four starts.

It is a bit of a guessing game as to which back will be out there more and which one will receive more carries, but Robinson’s workload has been trending pretty strongly in that he’s getting the ball when he’s out there on the field. Gibson had 17 touches in 40 snaps. Robinson had 26 in 43 snaps. Against a Houston team that can’t stop the run, Robinson should have a lot of opportunities to gain meaningful yardage.

Eagles/Colts Over 5 Total Touchdowns (-125)

The Colts found their running game last week in the win over the Raiders. They rushed for 207 yards and scored three touchdowns, as their 25 points were the second-most all season. Interim head coach Jeff Saturday knows a thing or two about offensive line play and his Colts get a weak rushing defense this week in the Eagles. Philadelphia did sign Linval Joseph and Ndumakong Suh, but it will take some time to get those guys into the playbook and into game shape.

In the meantime, this is a rush defense that ranks 31st in Rush EPA against and 32nd in Rushing Success Rate against. The Eagles are missing Dallas Goedert, but his absence may lead to a few more runs from Jalen Hurts, which is when this offense is running at peak performance. This is a game where I like the over and it wouldn’t be surprising to me to see a high-scoring game at Lucas Oil Stadium given that both offenses are good at what both defenses struggle with from a schematic standpoint. The Colts are well below average in Dropback Success Rate, so Hurts can have success through the air or with his legs.

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