Injuries are mounting and they create opportunities for different players to make some noise. Sometimes injuries are properly priced into the props market, but sometimes they aren’t, so the onus is on us as bettors to try and find those lines that aren’t as high as they should be. Isolating those is a good strategy to cashing player prop tickets.
It’s also another week where game state is very important. Some teams that like to run the ball may be forced to switch gears because they’ll likely be trailing throughout the game. There are also teams that like to throw it that may be looking to keep the clock running and get out with a win. All of these considerations should factor into your handicap.
Here are three player props to look at in Week 9.
Odds are from DraftKings as of Thursday night. Check out VSiN’s NFL prop analyzer here.
Zach Wilson Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-105)
The Jets take on the Bills this week, which means they’ll likely be trailing for a large percentage of the game. The double-digit line is an accurate representation of how big the gap is between these teams. When trailing throughout most of last week’s game, Wilson threw 41 times on 59 offensive snaps. It was also the Jets' first game without Breece Hall, who had emerged as the feature back and was heading for a pretty nice season before injury struck.
In previous weeks with Wilson at the helm, the Jets had leads and were able to just squat on them by taking their time and running the football. That strategy is unlikely to work this week and Wilson will be passing to play catch-up against the Bills. Buffalo does a lot of things well, but they’re middle of the pack in Pressure% and in the bottom 10 in Hurry%, so Wilson should have time to get the ball away, leading to more pass attempts.
Justin Fields Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Is this the last time we get Fields at a reasonable number for rushing yards? He’s gone Over this total in three straight games and four of the last five, as first-time offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and rookie head coach Matt Eberflus realized the scheme needs to include Fields using his legs. His hesitancy as a passer has been a major problem, but he’s had a fair amount of time to throw. Now that he’s been instructed to take off at will, the Bears offense is starting to show signs of life.
The Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most QB rushing yards this season and an average of 5.6 yards per carry. It’s entirely possible that the Bears will have to keep pace with the explosive Dolphins, and that should play into Fields running a bit more. Sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts into the 20-25 mph range may also make it harder to throw, thus encouraging Fields to scramble.
Leonard Fournette Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Buccaneers aren’t finding much success on the ground and face a stingy rush defense this week. The Rams have a lot of problems this season, but stopping the run is not one of them, as they rank fourth in Rush Defense DVOA per Football Outsiders. The Rams are also second in Rush Defense EPA, trailing only the Saints, and third in Rush Success Rate against.
Fournette had 24 carries for 65 yards against the Saints in a Week 2 win. Since that game, he’s only had more than 15 carries once. The Buccaneers aren’t running it much and Fournette is averaging 3.4 yards per carry (2.9 YPC in the last seven games). It would be surprising to see the running game as a focal point against the Rams and even more surprising to see an effective running game.