Overreactions are taking place all over the fantasy football and NFL betting landscapes based on last week’s snap counts and target shares.
All of the chatter will cause some bettors to reach for Week 1 heroes, while ignoring some of the players getting less attention than usual. That should create some equity in the betting market.
My NFL props went 2-1 last week, as Antonio Gibson fell one rushing yard short of a clean sweep. There are quite a few interesting games and some nice matchup opportunities to exploit in Week 2, so let’s get to it. Lines are from DraftKings as of Thursday night, but always shop around for the best numbers.
Trevor Lawrence Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Trailing most of the game against the Commanders last week, the Jaguars threw the ball 42 times against just 18 rushing attempts. In Doug Pederson’s five seasons as Eagles coach, Philadelphia ranked sixth, 13th, seventh, eighth and 10th in pass attempts, so Lawrence is going to have plenty of opportunities. That is especially true in games where the Jags are playing from behind.
Indianapolis is only a short favorite here, but my handicap on the game is that the Colts figured some things out in the fourth quarter against Houston and should show better this week. Meanwhile, Jacksonville had problems getting off the field against Washington, leading to a deficit throughout the game.
Game state matters so much when handicapping props. A running back is far more likely to go Over his props in a game where his team is ahead, while a wide receiver is more likely to go Under.
In this case, I think the Jaguars will be trailing against a better team throughout. Even if they aren’t, Pederson likes to throw the ball and the most important thing about this season for Jacksonville is the development of No. 16.
Cade York Over 1.5 Field Goals (+ 100)
In watching that abominable Week 1 performance by Jacoby Brissett, who threw for only 147 yards, it was striking how much the Browns struggled in the red zone. They went 1-for-4 inside the 20 and York was called on for four field-goal attempts in the game. When things get condensed down near the scoring areas, the safeties are playing closer to the line, which is going to hurt Cleveland’s stretch running game.
Brissett doesn’t have the arm skill or the wide receivers to be successful in the high-percentage scoring areas, which is why York should be busy again versus the Jets. Brissett was 1-for-4 for one yard in the red zone, with the completion being the touchdown to Kareem Hunt. He was only 3-for-9 passing for 17 yards in Panthers territory.
The Browns are going to protect their points by running the ball, as opposed to running the risk of a Brissett sack or an ill-timed interception. With a trustworthy kicker, we should see Kevin Stefanski err on the side of caution in some fourth-down situations.
Cleveland should move the ball on the Jets, but scoring touchdowns is a bigger ask.
Olamide Zaccheaus More Receptions than Allen Robinson (+ 600)
DraftKings and other sportsbooks offer head-to-head props and this one is worth a shot. Zaccheaus caught four passes last week, which was one more than he caught in any game last season. He played 60% of the snaps, but the Falcons were leading for nearly the entire game and ran the ball more than they normally would.
The Falcons are double-digit underdogs this week on the road against the Rams, meaning they’ll likely trail throughout and be forced to throw, which should lead to more snaps and more targets for Zaccheaus. Meanwhile, the Rams are heavy favorites a week after Matthew Stafford was hit 16 times and took seven sacks. The Rams offensive line has major issues and Sean McVay may play it a little more conservative this week if his team has a lead in the second half. The Falcons had four sacks and eight QB hits on Jameis Winston, so the pass rush could help us here.
Stafford threw 41 times against the Bills and only two passes were thrown in the direction of Robinson. Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee combined for over 63% of the targets. Either Stafford hasn’t really developed a rapport with Robinson or new OC Liam Coen isn’t quite sure how to use him yet.
Zaccheaus was on the field a lot late last season and I think he could be part of the game plan this week, especially if the Falcons are trailing most of the day.