It was a somewhat quiet week in the NBA with the league taking a night off for Thanksgiving, but there is still plenty to discuss. This week we touch on the totals phenomenon before discussing the Pistons’ surge and the struggles of the two Los Angeles franchises.
Favorites: 24-26 ATS (Season: 169-139-2 ATS)
Total O/U: 31-20 (Season: 135-173-5)
Home-court Advantage: + 3
Last week I punted on predicting when totals would start to head Over, and sure enough Overs had their first winning week of the season at 31-20 (60.8 percent). This was bound to happen. The indicators were there; it was just a matter of when. The average closing total bottomed out the previous week at 214.5 per game, but last week that figure was up to 215.6 per game. Offenses are getting better, and for the second week we’ve seen the average offensive rating in non-garbage time jump, as teams are now putting up 108.6 points per 100 possessions. Shooting has not budged at 37.3 percent, but expect the trend to continue. Overs will not hit at 60 percent the rest of the season, but I would expect they will win the week often.
Other than that, not much to report from a side perspective. Favorites had a solid week in going 30-20 SU (one game closed PK), but underdogs won the week at 26-24 ATS. The fascinating part of this season has been the strength of teams at home. Home-court advantage is solidly sitting at three, and road teams have mounted no real push lately. When handicapping the card on a night-to-night basis or when making your own numbers, keep that in mind.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH