As the NBA moves into its fourth week, there is quite a bit to discuss. Unders continue to dominate the board with no signs of slowing, and through about 11 games we are starting to find out the identity of most clubs. Let’s dive into those topics in this week’s betting report.
Favorites: 29-22 ATS (season: 81-72-1 ATS)
Total O/U: 17-32-3 (season: 56-95-3)
Home-court advantage: + 2
We are just over three weeks into the season, and you will notice an addition to what we are keeping track of in the betting report: home-court advantage. It is still thought that home-court advantage is worth a full three points, but as you can see, that is not the case this season. Through 154 contests, that advantage comes out to just two points, and that is skewed by a short sample size and a dominant stretch from home teams over the last few days. We will keep updating this all season, but it is worth mentioning that the worth of home court was only a single point until recently.
Unders continue to be cash cows. Totals averaged out to 216.3 per contest last week, and still we saw 61.5 percent of them go Under to bring the season record to 95-56-3 on Unders. Offenses are getting better, though, as the average offensive rating in non-garbage time is up to 107.7, which is 0.4 points higher than through the first two weeks. As that continues to climb and totals continue to drop, we could see it creep back to the average. But it is hard to believe it is coming soon, given what we have seen to this point.