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Three key early NBA betting takeaways

October 26, 2021 07:59 PM

Welcome to a new feature in Point Spread Weekly in which we recap the week that was in the NBA in an attempt to use that information as a handicapping tool moving forward. The first week of action in the Association was entertaining and eye-opening. Chicago is off to an undefeated start and Denver is showing some massive issues.


This week we’ll take a detailed look at the Bulls and Nuggets and recap the week from a betting perspective as well. Keep in mind, all information in this article will be through Monday’s games. 




Favorites: 31-18 ATS 

Totals O/U: 20-29 

Home teams: 24-25 SU / 20-29 ATS


It was a chalky week to open the NBA season with favorites covering at a 63.3 percent clip through the first 49 games. What is interesting is that those favorites came through mostly on the road, with home teams posting a losing record both SU & ATS. In almost every sport we have evidence that playing at home is not the advantage it once was, and through the first week in the NBA season, that is holding true.


Unders have the lead early this season despite lower totals than last season. Adam Burke noted in the NBA Guide that the average total last season was 224.1 but through the first week the average total was 223.1 and Unders still have quite the edge to start (59.2 percent). This means nothing and is more likely a result of the schedule pitting poor offensive teams against one another early, but in a league lauded for its high scoring, it’s interesting to learn bettors have been subjected to some low scores early.



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