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Three early Week 12 NFL lines I like

By Adam Burke  ( 

November 21, 2021 08:07 PM

The Thanksgiving week is always a bit of a tricky one for NFL handicappers. Six teams play on short rest with the annual Turkey Day trio of games. There are a lot of different schools of thought regarding home and road teams for the holidays. One of the main talking points is whether or not it’s easier to be completely away from your family and focused on business or be at home and be able to spend time together before or after the game.

Detroit and Dallas are, of course, used to it since they play at home on Thanksgiving every season. Their opponents sometimes aren’t and the league added a prime-time game a few years ago, which has been a division game more often than not, but will not be one this season.

One of the Thanksgiving games stands out to me with an early look at lines I like for Week 12. The others come from Sunday.

Buffalo Bills (-4.5, 46.5) at New Orleans Saints

There is something seriously wrong with the Bills. Buffalo has really struggled with comparable or better competition this season, with the exception of the Chiefs game, in which the Bills were plus-four in turnover margin. After a sound beating from the Colts, Buffalo has to right the ship quickly before Thursday night’s game in New Orleans.

The Saints gave up a 40-burger to the Eagles, but the defense wasn’t nearly that bad. New Orleans held the Eagles to 4.9 yards per play, as Philadelphia ran the ball 50 times for 242 yards. The Saints couldn’t stop the run, but the Bills don’t have a strong running game. They prefer to run the offense through Josh Allen and the wide receivers.

Keep an eye throughout the week on the status of Tremaine Edmunds, who was sorely missed in the middle of the Bills defense against Jonathan Taylor and the Colts' rushing attack. New Orleans lacks playmakers with Alvin Kamara banged up and no Michael Thomas this season.

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