Three early NFL lines I like in Week 8

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

October 24, 2022 05:44 PM
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Week 8 has some very interesting lines and the market hasn’t even fully taken shape. 

We have Aaron Rodgers as a double-digit underdog for the first time in his career as the Packers take on a rested Bills team on “Sunday Night Football” and Tom Brady as a home underdog against the Ravens on “Thursday Night Football.” 

We also have Jacksonville as clear favorites against the Broncos in a “home” game at Wembley Stadium and a Buckeye State battle between the Bengals and Browns on Monday night.

Only two teams have byes this week (Chiefs and Chargers), while the Bills, Rams, Vikings and Eagles return from their off weeks with three of the four in clear favorite roles.

Here are some early lines to consider for Week 8 (odds are from DraftKings as of Sunday night):

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 48)

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals outlasted the Saints on Thursday night, so the rest advantage is somewhat nullified for the Vikings. Still, Minnesota will get a crack at a really bad Arizona defense. The Cardinals had two pick-sixes in the span of 1:04 to end the first half, but the defense gave up 494 yards and seven yards per play otherwise.

Kevin O’Connell is an astute coach who has a lot of weapons and should be able to pick apart the Fightin’ Kliff Kingsburys to hang a number in this one. Meanwhile, Murray only threw for 204 yards against a Saints defense that was without Marshon Lattimore to start the game and lost Bradley Roby during it. Trusting the Vikings is a good way to have a sweaty Sunday, but they should take care of business off the bye.

Pick: Vikings -4

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5, 41) at Los Angeles Rams

The Rams had a lot of soul-searching to do during the bye week. To go from a Super Bowl champion to a team averaging just five yards per play is quite a fall from grace. However, there’s a good chance the Rams figured out some of their issues during the week off, and a whole new set of problems opened up for the 49ers.

San Francisco was shredded by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in a 44-23 loss Sunday. While the Rams aren’t on the Chiefs’ level, San Francisco was exposed in a big way. The 49ers went into the game tops in the league in yards per play allowed with 4.2 but hadn’t really played a good offense to that point (including the Rams, who had only nine points and 257 yards of offense in a Week 4 loss to San Francisco).

That total was 42.5 on the slow track at Levi’s Stadium. This total is lower on the fast track at SoFi and the 49ers defense is in worse shape. Furthermore, Kyle Shanahan had a pretty good game plan against the Rams as the 49ers racked up 6.7 yards per play. This total seems too low after the teams went 0-for-4 in the red zone in the first matchup.

Pick: Over 41

Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 50) at Detroit Lions

Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins averaged six yards per play against the Steelers in a 16-10 win on Sunday night. It was good to see Tua back, but he did miss some throws and some opportunities. Moreover, the Steelers completely took the air out of the ball by holding it for over 33 minutes, which the Dolphins from getting more kicks at the can.

The Dolphins scored on four of their five possessions in the first half but settled for field goals on three of them, then had a drive stuffed on downs to start the second half. They left points on the field against a solid Pittsburgh defense. This week, they’ll face a much weaker Lions defense that had allowed 6.5 yards per play going into Week 7 (they allowed 5.6 to the Cowboys, who were easing Dak Prescott back into action).

On the fast, indoor track at Ford Field, the Dolphins should run wild. And nobody puts up garbage-time stats quite like Jared Goff. This game should feature some points.

Pick: Over 50

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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Follow The Money: Consider schedules before betting on a team. What happened before and what is coming up can impact if a team is worth backing. Like SEA hosting CAR (off their bye) with SF in Week 15.  View more tips.

The Greg Peterson Experience: Have a value in mind for a dropoff to a backup quarterback from the starter, as many QBs are injured at this time of the season. View more tips.

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Dave Tuley: Jets +10 at Bills.  ​​​View more picks.

 

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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VSiN PrimeTime: Be aware of injuries on the offensive line, skill positions get the most publicity, but if an elite tackle is out it could have a huge impact on the game. View more tips.

A Numbers Game: If you’re just getting into soccer betting, make sure you know exactly what you’re betting. i.e. Double chance, to win, to advance, etc. View more tips.
 
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Chuck Edel: Kansas State +2.5 vs TCU. View more picks.

Kenny White: Fresno State +3 vs Boise St. View more picks.
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