This week's trends in CFB, NFL

By Bruce Marshall  () 

COLLEGE

LOUISIANA TECH at NORTH TEXAS

After loss to UTSA, North Texas is 6-19 in last 25 on board since mid-2018. Skip Holtz and Louisiana Tech have won and covered five of last six vs. Mean Green. Tech edge: Louisiana Tech, based on team and series trends.

AIR FORCE at UTAH STATE

Win over New Mexico broke Aggies’ 0-5 SU and spread skid since late last season. USU still just 5-10 vs. line in last 15 on board since mid-2019. Air Force on 4-0-1 spread uptick in series. Tech edge: Air Force, based on team and series trends.

LOUISIANA at APPALACHIAN STATE

Even after big win vs. Troy, Appalachian State having a miserable 2020 vs. spread for new coach Shawn Clark, just 2-7 vs. line, 2-8 last 10 vs. number since late 2019. If Ragin’ Cajuns getting points, note 8-3-1 dog mark for Billy Napier since 2018. Tech edge: Louisiana, especially if dog, based on recent trends.

 

BOISE STATE at UNLV

After loss to Wyoming, UNLV 0-5 SU and vs. line in 2019 (counting San Jose State as loss). Rebels 2-6 vs. spread in last eight as hosts, including 0-3 this year. Boise 15-8 vs. line in last 23 as Mountain West visitor. Tech edge: Boise State, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at USC

Cougars have covered three of last four in series. Nick Rolovich 1-1 vs. line after Mike Leach had dropped 11 of 15 vs. spread into 2020. Trojans Under first three in 2020 after Over last six in 2019. USC 8-12 vs. line in last 20 at home. Tech edge: Washington State, based on extended trends.

GEORGIA TECH at NC STATE

Wolfpack a pleasant surprise in 2020, 7-3 SU and vs. 6-4 line after 2-10 spread nosedive in 2019. NC State also Over 10-4 in last 14 since late 2019. Yellow Jackets 7-12-1 vs. spread for Geoff Collins since he arrived last year, though they did narrowly win and cover vs. Wolfpack in 2019. Tech also on 12-4 Over run since early 2019. Tech edge: NC State and Over, based on team and totals trends.

VANDERBILT at GEORGIA

Georgia has won and covered last four meetings after Kirby Smart lost to Commodores in 2016. Tech edge: Georgia, based on series trends.

CLEMSON at VIRGINIA TECH

Even after beating Pitt, Clemson only 3-6 vs. spread in first 9 in 2020, now 3-7 vs. line since late last season. But Tigers’ extended marks still very good (11-6-1 vs. points as visitors since 2017). Virginia Tech on 3-8 spread slide since late 2019. Tech edge: Slight to Clemson, based on team trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at VIRGINIA

Jeff Hafley 4-2 as dog at BC, and Eagles 18-7-1 as dog since 2017. Cavaliers, however, have covered last four this season, and Bronco Mendenhall 22-13 vs. points since 2018. Cavs also Over 12-2 last 14 since mid-2019. Tech edge: Over, based on recent Virginia totals trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA at KENTUCKY

South Carolina has really hit skids with five SU and spread losses in a row in 2020, costing Will Muschamp his job. Kentucky only 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 vs. line last five this season. Wildcats had won five straight and 6-0-1 vs. line in previous seven in series before last year’s 24-7 Gamecocks win. Tech edge: Slight to Kentucky, based on extended series trends.

LIBERTY at COASTAL CAROLINA

Liberty has covered last seven in 2020, Flames also 6-1 last seven as dogs. Coastal Carolina 8-1-1 vs. line this season. Tech edge: Slight to Liberty, based on team trends.

MARYLAND at MICHIGAN

Michigan no covers in last five in 2020, now on 1-7 spread skid since late 2019. Jim Harbaugh, however, has won and covered all five vs. Terps since taking over Wolverines in 2015. Tech edge: Slight to Michigan, based on series trends.

OHIO STATE at MICHIGAN STATE

Buckeyes no covers last two in 2020, now 3-6 in last nine on board after eight straight covers in 2019. But Michigan State struggling at 2-3 SU and vs. line, also just 7-15 vs. number since late 2018. Buckeyes have won and covered last three in series by 108-19 total score. Tech edge: Ohio State, based on team and recent series trends.

NEBRASKA at PURDUE

Boilermakers no covers last four this year after covers in eight of their previous nine games. Meanwhile, Huskers covered at Iowa but still just 5-12 vs. spread since last year. Purdue only 1-5 last six as chalk overall but 5-1 vs. spread last six in series. Tech edge: Purdue, based on team and series trends.

PENN STATE at RUTGERS

Penn State finally with a W in 2020 but still just 1-5 vs. line. Scarlet Knights have covered last three in series. Greg Schiano 3-2 vs. line in return to Rutgers. Tech edge: Rutgers, based on recent and series trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at GEORGIA SOUTHERN

Florida Atlantic Under 5-1 this season, Georgia Southern Under 8-4 last 12 since late 2019. Tech edge: Under, based on totals trends.

BOWLING GREEN at AKRON

Akron 0-16 SU, 2-14 since last year vs. line. Bowling Green 4-12 vs. spread. Falcons won and covered 35-6 last year. Tech edge: Bowling Green, based on team trends.

BALL STATE at CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Ball State 1-3 vs. line in 2020. After beating Eastern Michigan, Jim McElwain now 13-5 vs. line for Central Michigan. Chippewas 7-1 vs. spread at home. Tech edge: Central Michigan, based on recent trends.

KENT STATE at MIAMI (OHIO)

Kent State on 9-3 spread uptick since mid-2019, and has covered six of last seven on road (counts Buffalo loss last week). Golden Flashes on 7-2 Over run since loss to Miami last season. Tech edge: Kent State, based on recent trends.

BUFFALO at OHIO

Home team has covered last three in series. Ohio 14-5 as dog since 2015, even though just 6-10 overall vs. spread since last season. Buffalo 29-13-3 spread uptick last three-plus years. Tech edge: Ohio, based on team and series home trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at WESTERN MICHIGAN

Eagles not quite same spread magic this season now 2-2 vs. line after blowing game vs. Central Michigan. On road, however, Eastern has covered its first two and as road dog EMU has been superb (19-3-1 as dog away from home since late 2015). Also 3-0-1 vs. line in last four vs. WMU. Broncos, however, 4-0 SU and 3-1 vs. line to open 2020. Tech edge: EMU, based on team and series trends.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at CHARLOTTE

Charlotte struggling, 0-5 SU this year and just 5-13 vs. spread since 2019. Though FIU has won outright last five in series. Tech edge: Slight to Charlotte, based on recent trends.

RICE at MARSHALL

Marshall unbeaten 7-0 SU, 5-2 vs. line this season, though only 2-2 vs. line at home this year, 3-8 vs. spread as host since 2019. Owls actually 8-3 vs. number last 11 away. Tech edge: Slight to Rice, based on team trends.

FLORIDA at TENNESSEE

Bottom has dropped out for Vols, who have lost and failed to cover last five this year, all by double-digit margins. Gators have won and covered last three meetings (81-24 total score last two years for Dan Mullen). Tech edge: Florida, based on team and series trends.

OREGON STATE at UTAH

After upset of Oregon, Beavers have covered last three this season and now 12-3 vs. spread in last 15 on board. However, one of those recent defeats was a 52-7 home loss to a better Utah team. Tech edge: Oregon State, based on recent trends.

COLORADO at ARIZONA

Kevin Sumlin 3-14 SU in last 17 with Arizona since late 2018, also 4-12 last 16 vs. spread. Though he has won and covered last two years vs. Buffs, part of Wildcats’ three-game series SU and spread win streak. Colorado 3-0 SU and vs. line this season. Tech edge: Colorado, based on recent trends.

UCLA at ARIZONA STATE

Bruins have covered three in a row in 2020, and Chip Kelly has covered last two vs. Arizona State. UCLA also on three-game series cover streak. Herm Edwards on 2-6 spread skid at home. Tech edge: UCLA, based on recent and series trends.

SYRACUSE at NOTRE DAME

Syracuse 9-13 vs. spread since last season, 3-6 vs. spread in last nine away. Notre Dame on 10-4 spread uptick after beating North Carolina. Tech edge: Notre Dame, based on recent trends.

STANFORD at WASHINGTON

Stanford has covered last three and four of last five in series. Though David Shaw just 1-6 last seven in what used to be a profitable dog role for him. Huskies just 3-0 vs. spread in last 12 as Pac-12 hosts. Tech edge: Stanford, based on series trends.

FRESNO STATE at NEVADA

Wolf Pack 5-1 SU, 4-2 vs. line in 2020, won and covered first three at home. They are 8-2 vs. spread in last 10 at home vs. Mountain West foes. Fresno State has won and covered last three this year, though schedule broke well in that stretch, and Bulldogs have been off since Nov. 14. Tech edge: Slight to Nevada, based on team trends.

OREGON at CALIFORNIA

Ducks Over 5-0-1 in last six since late 2019 after Oregon State game. Bears 16-7 in dog role entering 2020. Tech edge: Slight to Cal, based on team trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE at TCU

Oklahoma State no covers in last four this year, also on 9-3 Under run since late 2019. TCU Under 6-4 since late 2019, though last three Over in series. Tech edge: Slight to Under, based on totals trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at IOWA STATE

Iowa State has won and covered last two meetings, and Cyclones have covered five of last seven this year, including Saturday’s win at Texas. Mountaineers 1-2 vs. line on road in 2020 after covering last three as visitors in 2019. Tech edge: Slight to Iowa State, based on team trends.

INDIANA at WISCONSIN

Indiana is 6-0 vs. line in 2020, has covered last seven and 10 of last 12 since late 2019. Hoosiers 6-2 vs. line last eight on road and have covered last four and seven of last eight as dogs. Wisconsin just 3-6 vs. spread in last nine as Big Ten host. Tech edge: Indiana, based on recent trends.

KANSAS at TEXAS TECH

Kansas 0-8 SU, 0-7-1 vs. line this season, Les Miles now 0-8-1 in last nine and 1-10-1 in last 12 vs. spread since late 2019. Last Jayhawks SU win was vs. Red Raiders last year. Matt Wells 3-1 vs. spread at home vs. Big 12 this season, 3-4 as chalk since taking over Texas Tech last year. Tech had won previous eight SU in series into 2019. Tech edge: Texas Tech, based on Kansas negatives.

TOLEDO at NORTHERN ILLINOIS

Rockets have recovered somewhat from their poor close to 2019 (0-6-1 last seven vs. line), with 2-2 SU and spread marks in 2020. Toledo also 7-3 Over run since mid-2019. NIU 2-4 vs. line as MAC host since last year. Tech edge: Slight to Over and Toledo, based on totals and team trends.

BAYLOR at OKLAHOMA

Bears only 1-4-1 vs. line in last six this year. OU surging with five wins and covers in a row since loss to Iowa State. Sooners have covered four of last five regular-season meetings (excludes 2019 Big 12 title game). Tech edge: Oklahoma, based on recent trends.

TEXAS A&M at AUBURN

If Jimbo Fisher a dog here, just 2-3 last five in role since last year, and Gus Malzahn has beaten Aggies three in a row outright. Auburn 8-3 vs. spread at home since last season. Tech edge: Slight to Auburn, based on team and series trends.

TEXAS at KANSAS STATE

After close loss to Iowa State, Texas only 1-5-1 last seven vs. line this year. Tom Herman also no covers in last three vs. Kansas State, and Longhorns no covers in last four in series. Chris Klieman 10-4 as dog with Wildcats after Bill Snyder was 15-5 as dog in his last three years (2016-18). Tech edge: Kansas State, based on team and series trends.

IOWA at ILLINOIS

Iowa has won and covered last three trips to Illinois by combined 121-14 score, with two shutouts. Iowa has won SU last six in series, didn’t quite get spread in 19-10 win last year. Hawkeyes 9-3-1 last 13 vs. line as Big Ten visitors. Illinois, however, is 8-3 in last 11 as dog. Tech edge: Iowa, based on team and series trends.

HAWAII at SAN JOSE STATE

San Jose State 4-0 SU and vs. line (counts UNLV as win) in 2020 and on 13-4-1 spread uptick. Spartans have covered last three years vs. Hawaii, though they haven’t won outright in series since 2015. Tech edge: San Jose State, based on team and series trends.

WYOMING at NEW MEXICO

New Mexico 0-5 SU after loss to Utah State, now on 14-game SU losing streak. Lobos 5-12 vs. line since last season. New Mexico did cover this game in 2019, but after romp over UNLV, Wyoming enters on 15-7 spread uptick since late 2018. Tech edge: Wyoming, based on recent trends.

COLORADO STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE

Aztecs 2-1 as home chalk this season after 4-12 mark previous 16 in role. Steve Addazio just 1-2 vs. line in first season at Colorado State but was 14-5-1 as dog previous three years at Boston College. Tech edge: Slight to San Diego State, based on recent trends.

MEMPHIS at TULANE

Tulane had covered five in a row before bitter overtime loss at Tulsa. Meanwhile, Memphis needed a romp over Stephen F. Austin to break recent spread skid, but Tigers still just 1-9 vs. line last 10 against FBS foes (1-7 for Ryan Silverfield). Home team has covered last four meetings. Tech edge: Tulane, based on recent and series trends.

TULSA at NAVY

Magical Tulsa 5-1 SU and vs. line this year, 9-3 last 12 vs. spread since mid-2019. Though Golden Hurricane has lost and failed to cover last five years vs. Navy. Midshipmen only 3-3 in dog role since last year, but 20-9-1 as dog from 2013-18. Tech edge: Slight to Navy, based on series trends.

TROY at SOUTH ALABAMA

Troy has won and covered handily last two in rivalry, but Trojans just 7-13 vs. spread since last year. South Alabama has cooled off, now 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 vs. line last four. Troy also on 8-1-1 Under run since late 2019, and Jags Under six straight in 2020. Tech edge: Under, based on totals trends.

LOUISIANA-MONROE at ARKANSAS STATE

Arkansas State having subpar year (3-7 SU, only 1-4 vs. line last five) but has owned ULM, with wins and covers last 10 meetings. Warhawks have slipped in back door for a couple of recent covers but still just 3-6 vs. line this year and 11-24 vs. line since late 2017. Tech edge: Arkansas State, based on series trends.

ARKANSAS at MISSOURI

Arkansas has dropped last two vs. line but still 6-2 vs. spread in 2020. Eli Drinkwitz 5-2 vs. spread in first spin with Missouri, 4-0 vs. line at home. Home team has covered last six in series. Tech edge: Slight to Mizzou, based on series trends.

HOUSTON at SMU

Dana Holgorsen very so-so since last year with Houston (9-9 vs. line) and just 6-7 as dog (0-3 this year). SMU 7-3 vs. spread as host since last year. Home team has covered last four meetings. Tech edge: SMU, based on team and series trends.

ALABAMA at LSU

Alabama has covered last five this season and has won and covered last four trips to LSU, with shutouts last two. LSU 1-1 as dog in 2020 and Ed Orgeron 9-2 last 11 in role. Tech edge: Alabama, based on team and series trends.

NFL

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH

Ravens on 2-5-1 spread slump last seven this season after 11-1 spread uptick in regular-season games. John Harbaugh, however, has dropped only one vs. spread in last five at Pittsburgh (3-1-1), and Baltimore 5-0 as dog since last season. Steelers 9-0 SU, 7-2 vs. line this year. Last three Over in series. Tech edge: Ravens and slight to Over, based on series and totals trends.

DETROIT at CHICAGO

Lions going bad again, 1-4 SU and vs. line last five this season after loss to Texans that cost Matt Patricia his job. After loss to Packers on Sunday night, Bears only 9-19 in last 28 vs. spread and also Under 24-10 in last 34 since late 2018. Chicago has won last five outright in series, 4-1 vs. line in those games. Tech edge: Under, based on totals trends.

CINCINNATI at MIAMI

After 6-1-1 start vs. spread, Cincinnati has dropped two of last three vs. line and now no Joe Burrow. Bengals also Over 4-2 last six. Miami had won and covered five in a row before loss to Denver, and Dolphins now 8-2 vs. points in last 10 as host. Tech edge: Dolphins, based on team trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON

Houston on uptick for Romeo Crennel with wins in last two and covers in last three. Though Indianapolis has won and covered last four and six of last seven in series. Under 6-2 in last eight meetings. Tech edge: Under and slight to Colts, based on totals and series trends.

JACKSONVILLE at MINNESOTA

Jaguars 0-9 SU and 3-6 vs. spread in last nine. Vikings had covered six of seven before loss to Dallas loss and non-cover against Carolina. Minnesota Over 8-3 in 2020 and 16-6 in last 22 regular-season games. Tech edge: Over and Vikings, based on totals and team trends.

WASHINGTON at PITTSBURGH

Washington has won and covered two in a row, including road spread W after whipping Dallas on Thanksgiving. Before hosting Ravens on Wednesday, Steelers had covered seven of last eight, with Over 4-1 at home. Tech edge: Over and Steelers, based on totals and team trends.

LAS VEGAS at NEW YORK JETS

Raiders got bounced here by Jets 34-3 last season. Las Vegas had covered last four this year before Atlanta debacle. Even after loss to Miami, Jets have covered three of last five. Raiders Over 7-3-1 this year. Tech edge: Over, based on totals trends.

NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA

Quick rematch of Saints’ 24-9 win on Nov. 22. Saints have covered four of last five in Atlanta, also on four-game cover streak and Under last four after seven straight Overs out of the gate. Falcons just 2-4 vs. line at home, though 4-2 vs. line for interim coach Raheem Morris. Last four and six of last seven Under in series. Tech edge: Under and slight to Saints, based on totals and series trends.

CLEVELAND at TENNESSEE

Titans Over 19-5 since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB in mid-2019, though Browns Under three of last four this year. Browns 1-10 vs. spread last 11 on road. Tech edge: Over and Titans, based on totals and team trends.

NEW YORK GIANTS at SEATTLE

Giants surging with 6-1-1 spread mark in last eight this year, and have remarkably covered nine of last 10 on road. Seahawks often cut it close but are 4-1 vs. line at home in 2020 after 2-6 spread mark there last year. Tech edge: Giants, based on team trends.

LOS ANGELES RAMS at ARIZONA

Sean McVay is 6-0 SU vs. Cardinals and 5-1 vs. line against Arizona since joining Rams in 2017. He has won and covered all three in Glendale, and  Rams have won and covered last five there. Arizona no covers in last four in 2020 after Kliff Kingsbury was 15-7-1 vs. spread previously, but still 11-4-1 last 16 as dog. Tech edge: Rams, based on recent trends.

PHILADELPHIA at GREEN BAY

Before Seattle game Monday night, Eagles 3-7 vs. line in 2020, 10-17 since a year ago (depending on time of wager, Eagles either W or L vs. Seahawks). Also 1-4 vs. line on road this year. Philadelphia Under last five in 2020. Packers have flattened a bit but still 6-3 vs. number last nine at home. Tech edge: Packers and Under, based on team and totals trends.

NEW ENGLAND at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Chargers 7-1 Over last eight this year, now 11-5 Over in last 15 since late 2019. Chargers also have dropped last five vs. spread. Patriots, however, just 1-4 vs. line on road in 2020. Tech edge: Over and slight to Patriots, based on totals and team trends.

DENVER at KANSAS CITY

Chiefs on 10-game SU win streak vs. Broncos, their longest ever in series. Combined score of last three meetings is 96-25, and Chiefs 9-1 vs. line in those 10 SU wins. Under 4-1 last five meetings. Tech edge: Chiefs and slight to Under, based on series and totals trends.

BUFFALO at SAN FRANCISCO

Battered 49ers just 1-4 vs. line at home this season, Bills surprising 7-3-1 Over in 2020. Tech edge: Over and slight to Bills, based on totals and recent trends.

DALLAS at BALTIMORE

Cowboys just 2-9 vs. line this year after loss to Washington. Baltimore only 2-5-1 vs. spread in last eight, heading into Pittsburgh on Wednesday, but had been 12-1-1 vs. line in previous 14 regular-season games. Tech edge: Slight to Ravens, based on extended trends.

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