Finding football betting gold is as difficult as discovering the real nuggets, but there are two football bets this fall that are ringing the cash register at 100 percent.
1. Alabama is perfect vs. the first-half spread. VSiN’s Matt Youmans picked up on this trend early this season, and it has paid off every time. The only problem right now is the Crimson Tide is idle this week, awaiting its showdown with LSU in Baton Rouge. So we’ll have to wait another week to write that ticket again.
2. The 6-1 Kansas City Chiefs are 7-0 vs. the spread. Their 43-40 loss to New England was as close to an ATS loss as you can get. They were a 3½-point ’dog, so the hook covered.
This week the Chiefs opened a 10-point favorite at home for Sunday’s rematch against the Denver Broncos. That’s where the static line was set for the Westgate SuperContest. But the number has come down to 9½ across town, and according to Covers.com, 60 percent of the action has gone to the Chiefs.
However, if you recall that first meeting Week 4 on a Monday night in Denver, the Chiefs were forced to score two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to win 27-23, so you might want to consider backing the Broncos and taking the points.
In that comeback Patrick Mahomes announced to the world that he was the real deal. He faced a third-and-16 early in the quarter and went to Tyreek Hill for 15 yards and then to Kareem Hunt for 22 to convert on fourth down. Six plays later the Chiefs finished a 75-yard scoring drive and pulled within three points.
The KC defense then forced Case Keenum into a three-and-out. On the next drive the Chiefs had a second-and-30. Mahomes went to Demarcus Robinson for 23 yards and then to Demetrius Harris for 35 more. Four plays later Hunt ran it in for the go-ahead touchdown with 1:39 left. When linebacker Justin Houston broke up a fourth-down pass with 12 seconds left, the Chiefs had their win.
If you go back to last year the Chiefs have now covered 11 straight regular-season games. In anybody’s NFL power rankings right now, Kansas City would rate just below the Los Angeles Rams and the New England Patriots. This is a team capable of making a Super Bowl run. However 9½ or 10 points are a huge handicap in the betting world.
Here are several reasons to like the Broncos with the points:
1. They covered against the Rams at home two weeks ago in a 23-20 loss.
2. They have had three extra days of rest since burying the Cardinals last Thursday 45-10.
3. Those two ATS wins came after a Week 5 meltdown – a 34-16 road loss to the New York Jets. But remember this about the Broncos. They always fail to show up in the Eastern time zone.
Obviously, Denver is much better at Mile High. But still, catching 9½ or 10 points in Kansas City in a divisional matchup with a rested team is something you may well want to consider this week.
I get it if you want to ride the streak. And even if it gets as gusty in Kansas City as forecasters are suggesting, don’t forget that Mahomes played at Texas Tech. Anyone who has been to Lubbock knows about the wind there, and Mahomes conquered it. But don’t forget that Houston is doubtful with a hamstring injury, and that should make you think twice about the Chiefs defense.
My best advice is wait until Sunday morning to see if the public money keeps coming in on the Chiefs. At some point the line will have to move. If you want to avoid the added juice, the South Point never shades the pregame point spread. When it gets to 10, jump on it and take the points with Denver.