The Goat wins one for the contrarian players

February 8, 2021 12:10 AM

The GOAT did it again.

Tom Brady and the Bucs upset the Chiefs 31-9 on Sunday to win Super Bowl 55, handing wiseguys a massive victory. Tampa Bay was the epitome of a sharp, contrarian play. The public was all over Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, yet we saw the line fall from Chiefs -3.5 to -3. If the majority of bets were laying the points with the Chiefs, why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for public bettors to cash? If it looks too good to be true, it almost always is. This sharp reverse line movement toward Tampa Bay (+ 3.5 to + 3) was a dead giveaway that pros were grabbing the points, not laying them. With the win and cover, dogs with a line move in their favor are now 5-1 ATS this postseason and 16-3 ATS (84%) over the past four postseasons. Super Bowl teams with a line move in their favor improve to 8-2 ATS (80%) over the past decade.

Wiseguys also cashed the under. More than two-thirds of bets took the over, yet the total fell from 57.5 to 55.5 behind sharp under money. With the under win, "super high" totals of 50 or more in the Super Bowl are now 5-1 to the under since 2010.

Today a new week begins with 8 NBA games, 25 plus college basketball games and 5 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss where money is flowing for today's NHL slate...

7 p.m. ET: New York Islanders (4-4-2) at New York Rangers (4-4-2)

These East Division rivals have identical records and are both coming off a win. This line opened with the Rangers listed as short -110 home favorites. We've seen some shops rise to Rangers -115. New York has value as a home favorite (71-26, 73%). The Rangers also enjoy a two-day rest advantage, having last played on February 4th while the Islanders last played February 6th. Rested teams with at least three days between games against tired teams with only one or two days off between games are 9-2 (81%) this season. The Rangers are + 1 in goal differential this season and 3-2-1 at home. The Islanders are -4 and 1-4-2 on the road.

7 p.m. ET: Edmonton Oilers (6-7) at Ottawa Senators (2-9-1)

Both of these North Division opponents are looking to rebound from tough losses. The line opened with Edmonton listed as a -180 road favorite and we've seen the line balloon to -200, signaling pro money laying the moneyline price with the Oilers. Edmonton has value as a favorite off a loss (44-13, 77% this season) and a favorite with a line move of ten-cents or more (32-10, 76%). The Senators are -24 in goal differential, the worst in the NHL. We might also be looking at a high scoring game. The total is 6.5 with the over juiced to -125. The Oilers are 8-4-1 to the over this season. The Senators are 7-5 to the under.

7 p.m. ET: Vancouver Canucks (6-9) at Toronto Maple Leafs (9-2-1)

These teams are meeting for the third consecutive game. The Leafs have won the first two matchups 7-3 and 5-1. This line opened with Toronto listed as a -200 favorite and some shops have inched up to -210 or more. The Leafs have value as a home favorite 71-26 (73%) and a home favorite -150 or more (32-7, 82%) Toronto also has value as a favorite of -200 or more (17-4, 81%) and a favorite with a line move of 10-cents or more (32-10, 76%). Toronto is + 12 in goal differential while Vancouver -11. Toronto is 5-1 at home while Vancouver is 2-7 on the road.

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