Thanksgiving Day features a trio of interesting NFL games, including a night showdown between playoff hopefuls in the Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints.
Our team of experts at VSiN has each game covered from all angles, with a market report from South Point oddsmaker Chris Andrews, along picks from VSiN's Adam Burke, Dave Tuley and Matt Youmans and Ben Brown from Pro Football Focus.
Chicago Bears (-3, 41.5) at Detroit Lions
Market Report from Chris Andrews: I opened Chicago -3.5 and sharps took the hook. Then it was reported that Jared Goff would likely return to play quarterback for the Lions. I’m down to Chicago -3, but I see the line dropping elsewhere. The Lions will probably continue to get bet and I’ve taken some moneyline bets on Detroit too. Sharps took the Lions at + 155 and + 145. I’m currently at Chicago -155/Detroit + 135. My total of 41.5 is getting good two-way action. Thanksgiving Day Over/Unders usually draw a lot of play because the public wants to root for a side and total in all the TV games.
Burke: These teams are both a mess. There are injury concerns at the quarterback position on each side and it also looks as though Matt Nagy could be fired after this game. First-year Lions head coach Dan Campbell isn’t setting the world on fire with a 0-9-1 record and a hideous decision to kick a field goal on fourth-and-1 at the Cleveland 25-yard line in the fourth quarter of last week’s game (not to mention punting on fourth-and-9) with 2:36 left.
When the side and total look like bets that you don’t want to touch, the player prop bet market is always there for your consideration. One bright spot last week for the Lions was D’Andre Swift, who had 136 yards on just 14 carries against the Browns defense. Given that Tim Boyle was the QB, and the Browns should have been better prepared for the run, Swift’s stat line was extremely impressive.
His rushing yards prop is lined at 66.5 yards here. Whether Boyle gets another start or Jared Goff comes back at less than 100 percent, Swift should get ample touches in the run game against the Bears. Chicago ranks in the middle of the pack in yards per carry allowed and ranks 22nd in rush defense DVOA per Football Outsiders.