Wimbledon Men's Final 2023: Tennis best bets for Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz - Sunday, July 16th

July 15, 2023 05:20 PM

Tennis best bets for Wimbledon Men's Final - Sunday, July 16th

Wimbledon is the third major of the tennis season and it's arguably the most prestigious of the four. The All England Club in London, England is one of the most beautiful venues that the sport has to offer, and the exclusive nature of grass-court tennis gives it a different feel than the rest. With that out of the way, I'm hoping to dish out one more winner for the final day of action, so make sure you keep reading for my tennis best bet for Sunday, July 16th. This one focuses on the men's final in which Novak Djokovic takes on Carlos Alcaraz. 

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Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Not only will this match be played for the Wimbledon championship, but the top spot in the men’s rankings will also be on the line. The stakes here are just huge, and there’s also the legacy factor. In my opinion, Djokovic is already the greatest player in the history of the sport, but there are still some doubters out there. However, if the 23-time Grand Slam champion continues to add to his collection, what are people really going to be able to say?

As for Alcaraz, this is a kid that looks like he can be one of the all-time greats. He has already accomplished so much, despite being 20 years old. But for Alcaraz to get the respect he’ll deserve down the line, you’d think he’d have to go through Djokovic at least once. And he needs to do it while Djokovic is still playing elite tennis.

When looking at this match, it’s hard not to think that there’s been a massive overreaction in the market over the past couple of months. Earlier this year, a lot of people had already accepted the fact that Alcaraz might be the top player in the sport. The Spaniard had to sit on the sidelines while Djokovic won the Australian Open, but it was nothing but championships once Alcaraz returned. And he was doing it in such dominant fashion that he went into their matchup at the French Open semifinals as a -210 favorite.

Djokovic ended up beating Alcaraz in that match, with the Spaniard cramping up in the third set and looking like a complete shell of himself the rest of the way. But the 20-year-old had just seized momentum in the match before hurting himself. He took the second set 7-5 and I truly believe he would have gone on to win if he was at 100% health. Fast forward to now and that match has Djokovic sitting as a -215 favorite, which is almost the exact opposite of what we saw in Paris.

There’s no denying that what Djokovic has achieved on grass is remarkable, and the Serb is probably the best grass-court player in the history of the sport. But Alcaraz has looked extremely comfortable on the surface throughout this tournament, and I just can’t get on board with seeing such lopsided odds on a meeting between two players that are so evenly matched. The word value gets thrown around rather often in sports betting, and it can sometimes be completely meaningless. But this is the definition of value. This match is a legitimate coin toss, and you can get one of the players at +176 odds. That’s something you should take and be completely okay with losing.

Perhaps Djokovic’s mental strength will prove to be too much for Alcaraz in this match, allowing the 36-year-old to come up with the big points and ultimately get by in a close one. That has been the difference in quite a few of Djokovic’s wins over some of the players in the next generation. But Alcaraz has the power, speed and variety to give Djokovic everything he can possibly handle in this one. And Djokovic has given his opponents a lot of opportunities to put dents in the scoreboard throughout this tournament, and none of them have really been able to do it. Jannik Sinner squandered all those chances in his semi-final meeting with the legend. But Alcaraz isn’t like any of his peers. If Djokovic gives him some chances, Alcaraz will take advantage of a few of them.

Ultimately, I really believe that this match is on Alcaraz’s racquet. The Spaniard’s game is so complete in a lot of ways, but his serve is the only thing that comes and goes. He’ll need to really be dialed in order to pull off the biggest victory of his career. His serve-and-volley game is one of the major reasons he has taken such a big leap on grass. But Alcaraz knows what’s at stake and wants it more than anyone. So, I am expecting him to give us his best here. And either way, it’s simply worth a shot at these odds. This has been a profitable tournament thus far, and it only makes sense to go out with a swing — albeit a logical one.

Bet: Alcaraz ML (+176 - 2 units)

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