US Open Women's Final 2023: Tennis best bet for Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka - Saturday, September 9th

By Zachary Cohen  ( Senior Editor) 

September 8, 2023 04:35 PM

Tennis best bets for the US Open final - Saturday, September 9th

The US Open is the final major of the year and it's arguably the most exciting of the four Grand Slams. There's just something special about this tournament being played in Flushing Meadows, New York, where the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center serves as one of the greatest venues in the sport. On Saturday, Coco Gauff will look to win her first ever Grand Slam when she faces Aryna Sabalenka, the 2023 Australian Open champion, in the US Open finals. Here's our best bet for the match after a very profitable tournament. 

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have

Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka

The US Open women’s final should be a good one, as Coco Gauff will take on Aryna Sabalenka. I had Gauff as a +1400 play to win this tournament, and I’ll be up front right away and let you know that I hedged. The reason I did that is that I believe Sabalenka is going to win this match, and I was able to lock in a nice profit either way. For anybody that took Gauff at those odds, I’d suggest doing the same. And for anybody looking to play this match, I’d suggest going with Sabalenka.

It's not every day that you’re going to get a player as good as Sabalenka at -120 odds. The only person she isn’t normally a big favorite against is Iga Swiatek, who is usually the one favored in their matchups. But against everybody else, Sabalenka usually goes off at -200 or worse. But Gauff’s play over the last month or so has really grabbed the attention of fans and oddsmakers. Considering she won titles in D.C. and Cincinnati, it’s hard to blame them. But Sabalenka earned a dominant 6-4, 6-0 win over Gauff at Indian Wells back in March. And her power was overwhelming for the American in the desert. So, even if Gauff does put up a better fight in this one, there’s no guarantee she’ll win.

I think the reason I’m so high on Sabalenka in this matchup is that her forehand is such a weapon when she’s hitting it well. And throughout this tournament, that has been the case. Sabalenka did lose the shot in her comeback win over Madison Keys in the semis, but she found it rather quickly once the third-set tiebreaker started. Seeing it hold up in those key moments was huge, and I do think she’ll punish Gauff with it.

Gauff’s forehand has been the talk of the last couple of months, as she really started hitting it better once Brad Gilbert joined her team and helped instill some confidence in her. The improvement on that side of the court ultimately allowed her to win those two huge tournaments this summer. But Gauff looked like she went right back to square one with the forehand in her win over Karolina Muchova. She limped across the finish line in that match, using nothing but her speed, backhand and overall determination to get to the final. But if she’s not firing on all cylinders against Sabalenka, she will likely lose in a straightforward match.

You also don’t want to make the mistake of underestimating the amount of pressure Gauff will be under in this match. This is the 19-year-old’s second Grand Slam final, but it’s her first on American soil. And the fans in New York will be expecting a victory from her. That’s not going to be easy for her to deal with, but Sabalenka will be playing rather freely here — especially after having been facing elimination against Keys, who was serving for the match at 6-0, 5-4. 

Overall, I believe Sabalenka is still a much stronger player than Gauff. The American is definitely beginning to realize her potential, but I think she has a little more growing to do before she beats a player like this on this type of stage. She would have easily been my bet if she got Keys in this match instead.

Bet: Sabalenka ML (-120) 

2023 Overall Record: 283-257 (+44.76 units) 

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