Tennis best bets for the US Open - Wednesday, September 6th
The US Open is the final major of the year and it's arguably the most exciting of the four Grand Slams. There's just something special about this tournament being played in Flushing Meadows, New York, where the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center serves as one of the greatest venues in the sport. The drama of the night matches at Arthur Ashe Stadium can't be replicated anywhere else. With that out of the way, I'm hoping to continue dishing out winners over the next week, so make sure you keep reading for my tennis best bets for Wednesday, September 6th.
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Madison Keys vs. Marketa Vondrousova
Vondrousova has dropped only one set this entire tournament, but her road to the quarterfinals has been rather easy. The best player Vondrousova has defeated has been Ekaterina Alexandrova. You can’t fault somebody for beating the player in front of them, but I don’t think Vondrousova has been playing quite as well since Wimbledon. Meanwhile, Keys is arguably playing the best tennis of her career, as her serve is still a weapon and she’s now returning at an elite level. That allowed her to earn wins over high-level players like Liudmila Samsonova and Jessica Pegula.
The key to this match for me will be Keys’ power from all over the court. Vondrousova doesn’t generate power quite as easily, especially with the heavier ball and slower conditions. And she has even claimed that swinging harder is causing some strain on her elbow. Keys won’t have the same problem, as she can rip shots incredibly easily. I also think Keys’ improvements as a returner will allow her to get deep in Vondrousova’s service games, giving her some opportunities to break. I don’t think it’ll be quite as easy for Vondrousova to break Keys, who is serving well in New York.
Bet: Keys ML (-130 - 2 units)
Qinwen Zheng vs. Aryna Sabalenka + Alexander Zverev vs. Carlos Alcaraz
This is the second time this tournament that I’m suggesting a parlay, but the reality is that there aren’t many matches on Wednesday, and I needed to find value where I could. So, the best way to do that is to parlay two players that really shouldn’t lose their quarter-final matches.
Sabalenka has looked absolutely flawless throughout this tournament, and she now faces a player that doesn’t have big-match experience. Zheng did beat Ons Jabeur pretty easily last round, but this is going to be a whole different beast. Sabalenka has more power than anybody on the WTA Tour, which should make Zheng pretty uncomfortable out there. I also don’t think Sabalenka’s service woes have been much of an issue here. Double faults are about the only thing I’m worried about whenever I have Sabalenka, but I’m trusting her to avoid costly mistakes here.
As for Alcaraz, I would have liked him to beat Zverev on a good day, but the fact that the German is coming off a marathon match against Jannik Sinner on Monday makes it easier to love the Spaniard. And this match will be played in similar conditions to that one, where the humidity clearly got to Zverev. It also significantly lowered the impact of his booming serve. That’s the one advantage Zverev has over Alcaraz, but if it’s easier for the Spaniard to return then this could get ugly. I also think these conditions are perfect for Alcaraz, in general. As long as he can avoid cramping, I think slower hard courts are his best surface.
Parlay: Sabalenka/Alcaraz ML (-170)
2023 Overall Record: 279-250 (+48.23 units)
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