US Open 2023: Tennis best bets for Karolina Muchova vs. Coco Gauff, Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka - Thursday, September 7th

By Zachary Cohen  ( Senior Editor) 

September 6, 2023 04:35 PM

Tennis best bets for the US Open - Thursday, September 7th

The US Open is the final major of the year and it's arguably the most exciting of the four Grand Slams. There's just something special about this tournament being played in Flushing Meadows, New York, where the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center serves as one of the greatest venues in the sport. The drama of the night matches at Arthur Ashe Stadium can't be replicated anywhere else. With that out of the way, I'm hoping to continue dishing out winners over the final few days of the tournament, so make sure you keep reading for my tennis best bets for Thursday, September 7th. This story will cover the women's semifinals. 

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have

Karolina Muchova vs. Coco Gauff

If you were able to get Gauff to win this tournament at +1400, it might be worth hedging a little with Muchova as a +165 underdog. But if I were ignoring the futures market and just looking to play this match on its own, I’d take Gauff to cover 2.5 games with a little juice on it.

These two just played one another in Cincinnati, where Gauff earned a 6-3, 6-4 win in the finals. That was a match in which the heat and humidity played a big role in determining the outcome, as Gauff looked like she could have played another couple of hours and Muchova lost all her energy. In the second set, Muchova was barely able to track balls down and her ground strokes seemed to lack power. Unfortunately for Muchova, it’s supposed to be 94 degrees in New York when the semifinals are played. And it’s going to be very, very humid.

I don’t doubt that Muchova might be able to hang with Gauff, or even win the first set, but I think the American will pull away with the match eventually. And I also think Gauff will have a ton of extra momentum from a crowd that absolutely adores her. That’ll also make for an unpleasant environment for Muchova, who shouldn’t have to deal with that. But that’s just how it goes at the US Open.

I also just think that Gauff’s return game is too much for a player like Muchova. It would take a special type of server to easily hold against Gauff and her 41.1% break percentage. Muchova is very solid with the ball on her racquet, but I don’t think Gauff will be intimidated by her serve at all. She broke Muchova five times the last time they played, and she got deep in several other games, too.

Overall, I think playing outdoors will make the difference in this match. If the roof was closed at Arthur Ashe Stadium, then I’d potentially feel differently about this one. Not much separates these two on the court, but fitness looks to be something favoring Gauff in a big way.

Bet: Gauff -2.5 Games (-150)

Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka has looked like the best player in this tournament. Her power always gives her a big advantage over her opponents, but she also happens to be serving well and making good decisions on the court. But I still have a hard time believing in her after she choked away a spot in the French Open final against Muchova. Sabalenka has always been a player that goes to war against herself mentally, so she can be hard to trust later in tournaments. So, I'm taking a shot on Keys to give her a run for her money and I'm also sprinkling the moneyline here. 

Keys is one of the few players on tour with the power to hit with Sabalenka from the baseline, so the ground strokes in this match will be explosive. But where I think Keys will have an advantage here is in the return game. Keys is now a borderline elite returner, which is a big part of the reason she has made it to this point in the tournament. She is making opponents work in all of their service games, and I think she'll do that against Sabalenka. I also think Keys is a very good server herself. She just needs to stay focused and try not to let any service games completely get away. 

Keys is also a player that I fully trust to make it through the brutal heat and humidity, as she trained in Florida growing up. On top of that, I also think another edge Keys will have is that the crowd is going to be pulling hard for her. That should give her a little extra momentum, and it might also play some mind games with Sabalenka. 

Bet: Keys +1.5 Sets (+105 - 1.5 units) & Keys ML (+265 - 0.5 units) 

2023 Overall Record: 281-254 (+45.03 units) 

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