Tennis best bets for the US Open - Saturday, September 2nd
The US Open is the final major of the year and it's arguably the most exciting of the four Grand Slams. There's just something special about this tournament being played in Flushing Meadows, New York, where the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center serves as one of the greatest venues in the sport. The drama of the night matches at Arthur Ashe Stadium can't be replicated anywhere else. With that out of the way, I'm hoping to continue dishing out winners over the next week, so make sure you keep reading for my tennis best bets for Saturday, September 2nd.
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Jack Draper vs. Michael Mmoh & Matteo Arnaldi vs. Cameron Norrie
I’m not usually the type to suggest betting a parlay. In fact, this is maybe the second time I’ve ever done it in a column. However, I love both Draper and Norrie to win on Saturday, and I struggled to find comfortable ways to play them. So, I think pairing the two Englishmen up and laying a little bit of juice is the right way to go.
With Draper, it’s just hard to overstate how much better he is than his current ranking of 123. I think Draper is a borderline top-15 talent when he’s healthy, and he is certaintly looking that way in New York. After earning a straight-set win over Radu Albot in the opening round, Draper went out and beat the pulp out of Hubert Hurkacz. Hurkacz had been playing some great tennis heading into the event, so that win was incredibly impressive for the Brit. Now, I like him to go out and beat Mmoh, who lacks the weapons required to make Draper uncomfortable. Draper actually beat Mmoh 5-7, 6-4, 6-2 in a Challenger event in Italy last year. And I think he’ll win this one in four sets, at most.
As for Norrie, it took quite some time for his hard-court game to surface, but he’s finally playing some good tennis here. Norrie hasn’t dropped a set through two rounds, earning easy wins over Alexander Shevchenko and Yu Hsiou Hsu. Now, Norrie will be tasked with beating a feisty youngster in Arnaldi. I’m a big fan of the Italian’s game, but he’s the type of player that beats you with his sturdiness in every aspect of the game. That’s somebody that wins matches against mistake-prone players, which doesn’t describe Norrie. Norrie grinds opponents down and outsmarts them, and I think he’ll be able to do that against Arnaldi. The Italian lacks big match experience.
Parlay: Draper ML + Norrie ML (-147)
Stan Wawrinka vs. Jannik Sinner
Sinner has looked untouchable since the start of this tournament, beating Yannick Hanfmann and Lorenzo Sonego in straight sets. It was a big way for the Italian to bounce back from a horrible loss to Dusan Lajovic in Cincinnati. However, I don’t think this meeting with Wawrinka will be as easy as those other matches were.
Wawrinka beat Yoshihito Nishioka in straight sets in the opening round, and he followed it up with a four-set win over Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Wawrinka has now won 14 of his last 20 matches, and he has had a few performances in which he has looked like his vintage self. One of those came in a 6-3, 6-4 win over Frances Tiafoe in Cincinnati. Wawrinka is moving around the court very well for a 38-year-old and he is hitting with a ton of confidence and power from both sides of the court. And when he’s clicking like this, he's very hard to beat — especially in straight sets.
This is also a match that could spook Sinner a bit. I know he won his first Masters 1000 title in Toronto, but standing across the court from a legend and former US Open champion is going to be somewhat intimidating. And if Wawrinka shows up early, I think Sinner could play a nervy match. That will give Wawrinka some openings.
Bet: Wawrinka +2.5 Sets (-135 - 1.5 units)
Elina Svitolina vs. Jessica Pegula
Pegula is 3-1 in this head-to-head series, but Svitolina has won at least a set in three of the four matchups. One of them was actually a couple of weeks ago, with Pegula coming back from a set down to beat Svitolina in D.C. But that was a match that easily could have gone either way, and I don’t think there’s a very big gap between these two. Svitolina might only be ranked 26th in the world, but that is because she took a maternity leave. She’s a former world No. 3 and has been playing dangerously close to the level that got her there.
I genuinely think that this is a match that could go either way, especially with Pegula feeling the pressure to perform in front of the American crowd. I’m not quite sure Svitolina will come up with the goods and win this match, but I’d be shocked if she doesn’t have a chance. That said, I’m taking her to win a set and not worrying about a potential decider.
Bet: Svitolina +1.5 Sets (-110)
Ons Jabeur ML (-140 - 2 units) vs. Marie Bouzkova
Daniel Evans Over 9.5 Games Won (-125 - 2 units) vs. Carlos Alcaraz
2023 Overall Record: 271-247 (+40.50 units)
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