Nitto ATP Finals tennis best bets: Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic - Sunday, November 19
On Sunday, November 19, we'll see a championship battle between Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic in the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin, Italy. This is the final major singles event of the 2023 season, so this is a match you might want to watch. I likely won't be posting many tennis best bets between now and the 2024 Australian Open, so this is it for quite some time. I haven't had a great week with my picks, but I'm hoping to go out with a bang in what has been my most profitable season handicapping any sport. With that out of the way, keep reading for my pick for the final.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have
Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic
Sinner got the best of Djokovic when the two met in the round-robin portion of this event. The Italian earned a 7-5, 6-7 (5), 7-6 (2) victory over the 24-time Grand Slam champion in front of his home crowd. Now, the 22-year-old will be hoping to do it one more time, but I have some serious doubts. Djokovic has really dialed up his play over the last couple of matches, and his straight-set win over Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals was a borderline masterpiece. Alcaraz wasn't quite at his best in that match, but Djokovic deserves credit for never letting the Spaniard get comfortable. And overall, the Serbian was remarkable as a server in that match, and he looked especially spry from the baseline.
With the world No. 1 now playing his best tennis, I just don't see him letting a match like this slip away. Sinner gave everything he had to earn his first career win over Djokovic earlier in the week, but doing so twice in a row seems like an impossible task. The crowd will definitely do what it can to help the youngster, but I don't see that being enough. Djokovic is one of the game's smartest players, so he'll come to this one with a different approach. However, Sinner only knows how to win matches with raw power and athleticism. So, if he's nervous and not hitting his spots, this will be a rough match for him.
Bet: Djokovic ML (-170 - 2 units)
ADDED TIP: If you listened to my advice before the tournament, you might have taken Djokovic to win the tournament at +140 odds — and I suggested doing so as a two-unit play. If that's the case, you might want to consider a small hedge with Sinner available at plus-money odds. If you don't want to do that, I completely understand. But I definitely wouldn't add more to the position. It feels unnecessary.
2023 Overall Record: 317-290 (+53.81 units)
VSiN Tennis Betting Splits
Gill Alexander's Beating The Book Podcast