Mutua Madrid Open Finals 2023: Tennis best bets for Sabalenka vs. Swiatek, Struff vs. Alcaraz

By Zachary Cohen  ( 

May 5, 2023 05:20 PM

Tennis best bets for the Mutua Madrid Open Finals

The Mutua Madrid Open is one of the most exciting clay-court events of the season, as this is a 1000-level tournament for both the men and the women. This is one of the biggest non-majors of the entire year, and we have had the pleasure of watching a lot of great tennis over the last two weeks. However, we'e now in the finals of both the men's and women's events, and we have best bets for both matches. With that said, make sure you check out our preview of Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek on Saturday, May 6th, as well as Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Carlos Alcaraz on Sunday, May 7th. Also, make sure you actively check out our Pro Picks page, as we have been posting plays there regularly throughout the tournament. We ended up having a very profitable tournament, with a lot of the winners being posted to that page. 

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek

Sabalenka and Swiatek met in Stuttgart a few weeks ago and that match ended in a straight-set win for the Polish phenom. This is, however, a much different version of a clay-court tournament than that one was. Stuttgart plays more like a traditional clay-court event, as it’s a much slower game. But the altitude in Madrid makes things a lot faster, even for clay. That helps Sabalenka a lot in this matchup, as her power can be a lot for Swiatek to have to deal with.

Before the one-sided loss in Stuttgart, Sabalenka had either won or forced a decider in each of her previous meetings with Swiatek. And it’s pretty easy to see a scenario in which she wins a set in this match. It all just comes down to whether she is making her serves and avoiding bad mistakes. But Sabalenka is entering this tournament with quite a bit of confidence. She said after her semi-final match that she was hoping for the challenge of facing Swiatek again. That’s not something a competitor tends to say when they feel their opponent has an edge over them.

Swiatek will likely win this match and lift yet another clay-court title. But Sabalenka has a puncher’s chance because of her brute force. So, at plus-money odds, we’re taking her to push Swiatek.

Bet: Sabalenka +1.5 Sets (+120) 

Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Carlos Alcaraz 

It’s extremely unlikely that Struff will find a way to beat Alcaraz in the Mutua Madrid Open final. Alcaraz has won 20 matches in a row on Spanish clay, and he has looked flawless since his disappointing three-set win over Emil Ruusuvuori in the Round of 64. We should mention that Struff did beat Alcaraz at the French Open in 2021. However, Alcaraz beat him at Wimbledon a year later, and the 20-year-old has taken his game to new heights since both of those matches.

With all of that out of the way, it does seem a bit disrespectful that Struff’s individual game total is just 6.5 here. After all, Struff has earned wins over Ben Shelton, Dusan Lajovic, Pedro Cachin and Stefanos Tsitsipas this week. He also beat an in-form Aslan Karatsev in the semifinals, avenging his loss to the Russian from qualifiers at this very event.

Struff might be at a disadvantage in longer rallies, but he can definitely pick up some easy games with the ball on his racquet. He has an absolute rocket of a serve, and even Alcaraz could have some trouble returning it. It also doesn’t hurt that Alcaraz occasionally gets sloppy on his own serve. If the Spaniard has any weakness right now, it’s that he’s not yet an elite server. That, combined with Struff’s fantastic serve, makes it hard to believe the German won’t win seven games.

Bet: Struff Over 6.5 Games Won (-110) 

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