Mutua Madrid Open 2023: Tennis best bets for Garin vs. Fritz, Badosa vs. Sakkari - Monday, May 1st

By Zachary Cohen  (VSiN.com) 

April 30, 2023 07:20 PM
 

Tennis best bets for the Mutua Madrid Open - Monday, April May 1st

The Mutua Madrid Open is one of the most exciting clay-court events of the season, as this is a 1000-level tournament for both the men and the women. This is one of the biggest non-majors of the entire year, so most of the stars are out on the red clay over the next week. We're going to have you covered with tennis best bets for every big tournament of the season, so keep reading for our tennis predictions for Monday, May 1st and make sure you keep coming back for more! 

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 1

Cristian Garin vs. Taylor Fritz

While this clay tournament plays much faster than most, it still seems a little crazy that Garin is such a heavy underdog against Fritz. Sure, the American has already put together a very impressive clay-court season, but Garin has a winning record this season after a disastrous 2022 season. He also happens to be a ridiculous 77-48 on clay in ATP-level matches, while Fritz is just 32-27 on the surface. There’s no denying that Fritz will have a significant edge in power in this match — especially on the serve — but Garin packs a little punch himself. The Chilean also happens to be a better mover than Fritz, which is really where it’s easy to see him giving the American some trouble. Longer rallies should favor Garin, so we’re taking him to win at least one set here. That protects us if he loses a heartbreaker in the third.

Bet: Garin +1.5 Sets (-140) + Garin ML (+175 - 0.5 units)

Paula Badosa vs. Maria Sakkari

It wasn’t long ago that Badosa was near the top of the women’s game, and she is coming dangerously close to reaching the form that had her there in the first place. Badosa has been especially strong on clay this year, and now she is looking really comfortable in Madrid. Badosa just earned a 6-3, 6-0 victory over Cori Gauff in the Round of 32, and the American is a very strong clay-court player herself. That was a complete statement win from Badosa, who now faces Sakkari in unfavorable conditions for the Greek star. Sakkari has been productive on clay in her career, but she has played only three clay-court matches all year. One of those three matches was a blowout loss at the hands of Karolina Pliskova, which isn’t all that inspiring. She also needed three sets to beat Rebeka Masarova last round, and she looked a bit sloppy in that match. With that in mind, it’s hard not to like Badosa to win and cover a small game spread here. The big difference here should be the serve. Sakkari can struggle with hers on a good day, but this surface will slow it down a little and help Badosa hammer some returns. Meanwhile, Badosa’s serve was a legitimate weapon last round.

Bet: Badosa -2.5 Games (-155)

Make sure you check the Pro Picks page throughout the day. As odds begin to move, I might add more selections there. There were some winners posted there on Sunday, which ended up making the two losses in the story sting a little less. 

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