Tennis best bets for the action at the Miami Open on Friday, March 24th
We're a few days into the Miami Open at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, and the second half of the Sunshine Double has been fun thus far. We're looking forward to watching some more good tennis from the Sunshine State over the next week or so. With that in mind, keep reading for our tennis best bets for Friday, March 24th, and make sure you keep coming back for more! We are coming off a very profitable run at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, and we think you'll be happy with what you get from us here.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 24
Yibing Wu vs. Diego Schwartzman
It’s hard to think of a more lopsided matchup than this one. Schwartzman was once a top-15 player on the ATP Tour, but his game has fallen off a cliff recently. The Argentinean never had a very strong serve, but his hold percentage is below 70.0% for the first time since 2015. That wouldn’t be such a deathblow for Schwartzman if his break percentage was still above 30.0% — which it was in the previous six seasons — but it’s not. With Schwartzman no longer serving or returning at a high level, it’s very hard for him to win matches.
Schwartzman’s serve is going to look a lot worse against Yibing, too. This is one of the best returners on the ATP Tour right now, and he just has an insane amount of power in his right arm. On the fast courts in Miami, that will be a nightmare for Schwartzman to have to deal with. With that in mind, look for this match to end in straight sets.
Bet: Yibing -1.5 Sets (-120)
Sofia Kenin vs. Anhelina Kalinina
Kenin hasn’t played her best tennis in a very long time, but this version of the American was still too good for Kalinina in Hobart earlier in the season. Kenin earned a 4-6, 6-3, 6-1 win over Kalinina in January, and the 24-year-old has been taking baby steps with her game since then. Kenin is fresh off a very impressive showing in Indian Wells, where she beat Sloane Stephens in straight sets and then lost two tiebreakers to Elena Rybakina. Rybakina ended up winning that tournament, so there’s no shame in that loss.
Kalinina is a player that has preferred clay to this point in her career. She has a 14-10 record on the dirt at the WTA level, but she’s just 23-29 on hard courts. That might have been a good thing at the BNP Paribas Open last week, but the Miami courts are a lot faster. With that said, the advantage goes to Kenin, who has all sorts of power from the baseline. Look for the American to just overpower Kalinina in this one, as she can run her from side to side.
Kalinina’s only true advantages in a matchup like this is her fitness and ability to break serve. But Kenin has done a good job of getting into her opponent’s service games, too. And her power should be more of a factor than Kalinina’s conditioning and ability to run.
Bet: Kenin ML (-110)
Ilya Ivashka vs. Casper Ruud
Ruud has looked pretty terrible since returning to action in Acapulco. The world No. 4 won just one match in both Acapulco and Indian Wells. And his loss in the BNP Paribas Open was especially concerning. Ruud lost in straight sets against Cristian Garin in that one, and it's clear we're a few months away from seeing the Norwegian at anything close to his peak. With that in mind, there's definitely some value in fading him.
Ivashka won two matches in Indian Wells last week and is somebody that could be difficult to eliminate in Miami. He has gotten off to a poor start to the 2023 season, but he's 3-1 in his last four matches. And his big game makes him a very good fit for these fast courts.
We're not putting too much into this one, as it's more of a fade on Ruud than a play on Ivashka. But the value on the Belarusian to win a set is too hard to pass up. We would have played this up to -150 or so, but you can get it at -125.
Bet: Ivashka +1.5 Sets (-125)