Tennis best bets for the Italian Open semifinals
The Italian Open, also known as Internazionali BNL d’Italia, is a 1000-level clay-court tournament for both the men and the women. This is one of the most exciting tournaments of the entire year, and it’s coming to an end soon. With that in mind, keep reading for our tennis best bets for the semifinals. Also, make sure you actively check out our Pro Picks page, as we have been posting plays there regularly throughout the year. We ended up having a very profitable two weeks in Madrid, with a lot of the winners being posted to that page. And this tournament has already been very kind go to us.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have
Jelena Ostapenko vs. Elena Rybakina
Rybakina was able to get to the semifinals because Iga Swiatek was forced to retire in the third-set of their match in the quarterfinals. Rybakina was impressive in finding a way to extend that match, as it looked like she was heading towards a straight-set loss for most of it. But she is definitely a bit lucky to be playing at this point in the tournament, and this just doesn’t feel like one that she’s going to win.
While Rybakina is one of the best players in the world, this surface definitely gives a slight edge to Ostapenko. The Latvian pounds the ball every chance she gets, which is why she is constantly hitting winners. And with the slow bounces on clay, Ostapenko gets plenty of chances to put points away. When you combine that with the fact that Rybakina doesn’t move very well, it’s hard not to like the value on the underdog here.
Rybakina’s serve also hasn’t been as dominant as usual. If she consistently gives Ostapenko looks at second serves, this could get out of hand quickly.
Bet: Ostapenko ML (+140)
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Daniil Medvedev
The reason Tsitsipas is favored over Medvedev is because of the clay-court history these two have. Tsitsipas has been a lot more productive on the dirt than Medvedev has, with the Russian having just a .500 record on clay in his career. However, Medvedev is 11-5 on clay over the last 52 weeks, and he has looked a lot more comfortable on it in 2023. Medvedev also happens to be 38-6 since the start of the 2023 season, and he’s playing some of the best tennis of his life. Meanwhile, Tsitsipas hasn’t been as sharp as usual this season, so it’s hard not to like Medvedev as an underdog.
These courts should make it easier on Medvedev to get Tsitsipas’ serve back in play, and that’s going to be crucial for the Russian. If the Greek star isn’t winning easy points on his serve, this is going to be a lopsided match in favor of Medvedev. The Russian will also do everything he can to attack Tsitsipas’ backhand, which is his biggest weakness by a wide margin.
Bet: Medvedev ML (+125)
NOTE: We gave away Casper Ruud to win this event at +3500 before the tournament. If you tailed that pick, you might want to start hedging now. You can guarantee yourself a nice chunk of change by betting a decent amount on Holger Rune in the semifinals.