Italian Open Finals 2023: Tennis best bets for Holger Rune vs. Daniil Medvedev

By Zachary Cohen  ( 

May 20, 2023 08:35 PM

Tennis best bets for the Italian Open finals

The Italian Open, also known as Internazionali BNL d'Italia, is a 1000-level clay-court tournament for both the men and the women. This is one of the most exciting tournaments of the entire year, and it comes to an end on Sunday, May 21st. With that in mind, keep reading for our tennis best bets for the final between Holger Rune and Daniil Medvedev. Also, make sure you actively check out our Pro Picks page, as we have been posting plays there regularly throughout the year. We ended up having a very profitable two weeks in Madrid, with a lot of the winners being posted to that page. And this tournament has been very kind go to us. 

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have

Holger Rune vs. Daniil Medvedev

Rune beat Medvedev in the quarterfinals in Monte Carlo, earning a 6-3, 6-4 victory in just an hour and 18 minutes. It does, however, feel like Medvedev is playing the better tennis coming into this match. While Rune has been remarkable in earning wins over Novak Djokovic and Casper Ruud in the last two rounds, the young phenom has needed three sets to win each of his last three matches. That just shows that he isn’t at his absolute best, and he could also be a little fatigued entering this match. Meanwhile, Medvedev has won three matches in a row in straight sets.

Medvedev also happens to be a more experienced player than Rune, so the Russian should have a better idea of how to adjust to what he saw from this opponent in their last meeting. On top of that, this is just an outrageous price to be getting on a guy that has easily been the second-best player in the world since the start of the 2023 season. Medvedev is 39-6 since the start of the year, and he has already won four titles. With that in mind, it’s surprising to see him at plus-money odds against anybody other than Djokovic or Carlos Alcaraz. That’s part of the reason we took him to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semifinals.

It also feels like Medvedev’s struggles on clay are still being exaggerated a bit. Sure, it wasn’t his surface early in his career, but he also had some bad luck on the dirt. Now, Medvedev is 12-5 on clay over the last 52 weeks, and his last match should have shown the world that he is still an elite player on this surface. Part of that has to do with Medvedev really cranking up his forehand this season. He’s hitting that shot with more power and topspin, which has turned him into a more dangerous offensive player. That has allowed Medvedev to put a little more pressure on opponents on the dirt, as he is hitting some winners through the slow courts. 

Bet: Medvedev ML (+125 - 2 units) 

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