Italian Open 2023: Tennis best bets for Pella vs. Cressy, Arnaldi vs. Schwartzman - Thursday, May 11th

By Zachary Cohen  ( 

May 10, 2023 03:20 PM

Tennis best bets for the Italian Open - Thursday, May 11th

The Italian Open, also known as Internazionali BNL d'Italia, is a 1000-level clay-court tournament for both the men and the women. This is one of the most exciting tournaments of the entire year, and we'll have best bets for it on a daily basis. With that in mind, keep reading for our tennis best bets for Thursday, May 11th. We also have some bonus futures for you on the men's side. Also, make sure you actively check out our Pro Picks page, as we have been posting plays there regularly throughout the year. We ended up having a very profitable two weeks in Madrid, with a lot of the winners being posted to that page. We're hoping to keep it up in the last big event before the French Open. 

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have

Guido Pella vs. Maxime Cressy

Pella hasn’t played a match since losing in three sets against Denis Shapovalov at the Miami Open. So, the Argentinean hasn’t had a chance to get his feet wet on clay this year, but that really shouldn’t matter when facing Cressy. The American has lost all three of his matches on clay this year, and he enters this one on a seven-match losing streak, in general.

Cressy is a big server and has an old school game, but that really isn’t a good match for the slow courts in Rome. If anything, Cressy would have been a better fit on the fast courts in Madrid, but he failed to win a match there. With that in mind, it’s hard to see him beating Pella, who is 65-61 on clay in his career. It might take Pella a couple of games to knock off some rust and get himself comfortable, but he knows how to win on the red stuff. That makes him a great value play in the first day of men’s action.

Bet: Pella ML (+120) 

Matteo Arnaldi vs. Diego Schwartzman

Matteo Arnaldi has been having a very good clay-court season thus far, as he has done nothing but win at both the ATP and Challenger levels. This kid is brimming with confidence at the moment, and he now gets to face somebody that is the exact opposite. Schwartzman comes into this match after having lost three in a row, with all three of those matches coming on clay. Schwartzman is also just 5-13 in ATP-level matches on the year, makings this the worst season of his career, by far. 

Schwartzman is a player that can really grind from the baseline, but he has one of the worst serves on the ATP Tour. That's going to be an issue in Rome, where the courts are absurdly slow. Arnaldi should have no trouble breaking him throughout this match, which means the Italian will just need to serve decently in order to get the job done here. Arnaldi should also be able to overpower Schwartzman from the baseline. 

It's also hard to ignore that Arnaldi is going to have the fans on his side. Schwartzman usually has the crowd behind him because of his size and style of play. But Arnaldi will have the extra adrenaline, and that should allow him to win this match rather easily. 

Bet: Arnaldi ML (-160) 

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