Tennis best bets for Day 8 of the action at Indian Wells
If you're looking for more BNP Paribas Open tennis best bets for the "fifth major," you're in the right spot. We're diving into three of our favorite picks at Indian Wells for Wednesday, March 15th, and we're hoping that you find it in you to tag along. These picks have been very profitable to this point in the tournament. Keep reading for our tennis predictions for the day and make sure you keep coming back for more!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 15
Frances Tiafoe vs. Cameron Norrie
If you listened to our advice and took Norrie to win this tournament at +3100 odds, we’d fully understand if you didn’t want to touch this match. But for those that want to play this thing individually, we’re riding with the Brit to earn a win over Tiafoe here.
This is going to be the third meeting between these two players, with one of the previous ones coming at the Hopman Cup and the other coming in Delray Beach. The former was a match that took place in 2019, when Norrie blew Tiafoe off the court in a 7-6 (4), 6-0 win. The latter was a bit more competitive, with the southpaw emerging with a 6-0, 3-6, 6-4 win. But that result is especially important when looking at this upcoming matchup, as those conditions were a lot better for Tiafoe and he still couldn’t get the job done.
Looking at this match, it’s hard not to view this as one that Norrie should win relatively easily. The Brit hasn’t been holding as easily as you’d want him to at Indian Wells, but he still has a career-high hold percentage (81.9%) early in the 2023 season. When you combine that with the second-highest break percentage of his career, you have a player that is confident and hard to beat.
Norrie is also a player that has shown that he can thrive on clay and slower hard courts, even though he claims that his game isn’t suited all that well for the dirt. Meanwhile, Tiafoe is a player that has done his best work on faster hard courts, and he might not be able to hit as many balls by Norrie as he’d like to. Norrie is also a little further ahead in the point-construction department at this point in their careers, and that’s hard to ignore here.
Overall, Norrie is just a bit more trustworthy than Tiafoe in every aspect of the game, and the Brit is going to feel good about seeing the American on the other side of the net. For that reason, we’re rolling with him as a reasonable moneyline favorite.
Bet: Norrie ML (-150)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Daniil Medvedev
On Tuesday, we took Alexander Zverev to win a set against Medvedev, and we cashed that one immediately. Zverev won the first set in a tiebreaker, and he nearly won the match in a second-set tiebreaker. However, Medvedev ended up prevailing in that one, and we’re happy he did. That means we get another chance to fade him in these conditions.
Medvedev went on a rant to complain about the courts in Indian Wells after dropping that first set against Zverev, and it’s not surprising that he doesn’t like him. This is one of the top players on the planet, but he has always struggled on clay. And these hard courts tend to play a lot like clay, with the slower and higher bounces. Those directly impact Medvedev, who likes to hit the ball low and flat.
Whereas Medvedev absolutely hates the clay, Davidovich Fokina is 30-25 on the dirt in his career. That bodes well for his level on these specific hard courts. And the Spaniard has already played some inspiring tennis in this very tournament, as he has earned wins over Wu Yibing, Karen Khachanov and Cristian Garin. All those guys are formidable opponents.
Davidovich Fokina might not beat Medvedev outright, but he doesn’t have to for us to earn a nice payday. We just need him to find a way to win a set and doing so would get us +125 odds. It doesn’t get much better than that, especially considering each of the previous two matches between these guys have gone three sets.
Bet: Davidovich Fokina +1.5 Sets (+125)
Petra Kvitova vs. Maria Sakkari
We went against Kvitova in her match against Jessica Pegula and came out on the wrong side of it. It happens. But we still view Kvitova as a player that is struggling to find her A-game, and that makes it hard not to fade her — even if it’s entirely possible that it will burn us again. The Czech player simply isn’t moving and defending the way she used to, and being a split-second slow can be a killer.
Sakkari is just a much better player in these conditions, and the Greek star had a chance to prove that last year. Sakkari faced Kvitova at Indian Wells last season, and she ended up coming through with an easy 6-3, 6-0 victory. That win wasn’t exactly a fluke either, with Sakkari also having earned a straight-set win over Kvitova at the 2021 US Open.
With Kvitova not playing her best tennis right now, it’s easy to make the call to back Sakkari — especially with the recent head-to-head edge. We don’t love laying this much juice on a play, but we can stomach it every now and then. And this is a situation that calls for it, as Sakkari is more likely to grind out victories than blow her opponents out.
Bet: Sakkari ML (-155)