Tennis best bets for the men’s and women’s finals at Indian Wells
If you’re looking to bet on the BNP Paribas Open finals for either the men or the women at Indian Wells, then you came to the right place. We have a play for both matches at the "fifth major" for Sunday, March 19th, and we’re hoping that you close out the tournament by tagging along. These picks have been very profitable throughout the course of this event. Keep reading for our tennis predictions for the day and make sure you come back to see what we have for the Miami Open in a couple of days.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 19
Women’s Final: Elena Rybakina vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Rybakina is coming off an insanely impressive victory, as she beat world No. 1 Iga Swiatek in straight sets. This is supposed to be a tournament in which Swiatek should be unbeatable, but Rybakina took it to her with her powerful groundstrokes. She made sure Swiatek never looked comfortable, and she deserves all the props in the world for that. But it’s still hard to imagine her beating Sabalenka right now.
When these two met in the 2023 Australian Open final, Rybakina won the opening set and looked like she was on her way to winning back-to-back majors. But Sabalenka settled in from there, and she ultimately ended up coming away with a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 win. That was Sabalenka’s first Grand Slam title, and the way she’s playing this season suggests it might not be her last in 2023.
The only thing that held back Sabalenka in a down year last year was a glitch in her serve. The Belarusian couldn’t stay out of her own way, as she was double-faulting regularly and just giving away service games. But Sabalenka has completely swung in the other direction with that shot, and her hold percentage is up at 86.7% this year.
With Sabalenka now looking like one of the best servers in the women’s game, it’s going to be really tough to beat her. And doing so on this court is no exception. It takes a lot of power to consistently hit winners on a slow hard-court surface, but that’s a non-issue for Sabalenka. She’s going to have no trouble hitting the ball by Rybakina, who can sometimes struggle with her movement.
The slow courts will also give Sabalenka some time to pick up Rybakina’s serve. The Belarusian has already been breaking at an absurd rate this year, but she’s more dangerous in that regard here. This just seems like a play you can’t pass up, especially considering Rybakina wasn’t somebody that was supposed to do much damage at this event.
Bet: Sabalenka ML (-160)
Men’s Final: Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Medvedev is coming into this tournament after having won three tournaments in a row, and we cashed on him to beat Frances Tiafoe in straight sets last match. Medvedev isn’t a guy that likes to play in these conditions, but Tiafoe has struggled on clay throughout his career — and we have been treating this like a clay-court event. With that said, it was too hard to pass up on a mismatch like that. But this match is going to be hard for Medvedev to win.
A pretty good argument can be made that Alcaraz is the best player in the world, which is insane when you consider the fact that Novak Djokovic is still near the top of his game. And Alcaraz is good on every single surface, so his game isn’t going to dip at all in the desert. In fact, this is a surface that just might bring out the best in him, as he moves so well on hard courts and has a little extra time to react to things, like he does on clay. However, for a guy like Medvedev that hits low, flat shots, the fact these courts play slow and cause higher bounces puts him at a serious disadvantage.
Alcaraz also happens to be a bit better as a returner than Medvedev is, which is also a little nuts considering how good the Russian is at getting into the serve of his opponents. But that is something you have to factor in here, in addition to the fact that Alcaraz just has a little more versatility from the baseline.
Look for Alcaraz to utilize his drop shot pretty often in this one, as he can get Medvedev completely off balance if he has that shot working. But even if he doesn’t, we just think Alcaraz has a little too many weapons that Medvedev might struggle to find an answer for.
Bet: Alcaraz ML (-135)