Tennis best bets for Day 6 of the action at Indian Wells
If you're looking for more BNP Paribas Open tennis best bets for the "fifth major," you're in the right spot. We're diving into three of our favorite picks at Indian Wells for Monday, March 13th, and we're confident that we're pointing you in the right direction with these. Keep reading for our tennis predictions for the day and make sure you keep coming back for more!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 13
Hubert Hurkacz vs. Tommy Paul
Hurkacz and Paul have only met once on the ATP Tour, and it was the Pole that emerged with a 7-5, 7-6 (4) win in that one. That was, however, an indoor hard-court match, which favors Hurkacz’s skill set. The world No. 11 has a lot of power from the baseline, so speedy courts make it hard for his opponents to get a lot of balls in play. Even though those circumstances weren’t favorable for Paul, the American still played a very competitive match. And that was before Paul took his game to another level.
The conditions in Indian Wells should give Paul a sizable advantage over Hurkacz. Paul is already one of the best returners on the planet, and the slow courts here will amplify that. The high bounce will make Hurkacz’s serve a lot easier to manage, and that is one of the Pole’s biggest weapons. Paul is also a tremendous mover, so it’s going to be hard for Hurkacz to get balls by him from the baseline.
Paul just needs to hit his forehand well in this match. He should have the edge in backhand-to-backhand exchanges, and hitting clean shots from the other side could result in a straightforward victory for the American. The plus-money odds are a bonus.
Bet: Paul ML (+115)
Emma Raducanu vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia
It’s nice to see Raducanu beginning to find some form, as she’s too talented not to be one of the top players on the WTA Tour. This week, the 20-year-old has earned straight-set wins over world No. 62 Danka Kovinic and world No. 21 Magda Linette. Those are two massive victories for Raducanu, who hasn’t won two matches in a row since September. The problem for the Brit is that she’s running into a player that is just unbelievably hard to beat right now.
Last season, Haddad Maia was a career-best 37-21 in her 58 matches at the WTA level. The Brazilian has picked up right where she left off in 2023, starting the year with a 10-5 record in 15 matches.
Raducanu might pack a little more punch with her shots, but she also makes a lot more mistakes than Haddad Maia. And considering the Brazilian forces opponents to hit a lot of extra shots with her excellent court coverage, it isn’t hard to see this match getting away from Raducanu at some point. That alone makes it worth backing Haddad Maia.
Bet: Haddad Maia ML (-125)
Ons Jabeur vs. Marketa Vondrousova
The line on this match is so fishy that I think I ordered it at Long John Silver’s last weekend. Jabeur is the fourth-ranked player in the world and she’s a +140 underdog against a player that’s currently No. 105. Of course, Vondrousova is a former world No. 14, and she was a runner-up at the French Open in 2019. But it’s still wild to see Jabeur at these odds against a player that hasn’t been a serious presence on the WTA Tour in quite some time.
When something looks this off, the best thing you can possibly do is side with the oddsmakers. And while playing Vondrousova as a -180 favorite is a little too rich for our blood, we have no issue with laying the 2.5 games here.
Vondrousova has a 34-19 record on clay in her career in tour-level matches, and that means she’s dangerous on these slow hard courts. On top of that, Jabeur is playing in her first tournament since the Australian Open, so there’s a little rust on her end. Jabeur did drop a set against world No. 106 Magdalena Frech, which says a lot about the Tunisian’s current level.
All in all, everything in this one points to Vondrousova being the sharper side. It just takes a little digging to see why, and you’re going to want to avoid your first instinct with this one.
Bet: Vondrousova -2.5 Games (-125)