Tennis best bets for Day 3 of the action at Indian Wells
If you're looking for some tennis best bets, keep reading for our Indian Wells picks for Friday, March 10th. The BNP Paribas Open is considered tennis' "fifth major" and we have already seen some great matches already. The matchups are only going to get better from here, and we're looking to dish out picks that will help you profit. We have three tennis predictions for the Friday slate, but keep checking and perhaps we'll add a few more!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 10
Diego Schwartzman vs. Casper Ruud
We were on the wrong side of Schwartzman’s first-round match, as we wanted to fade the Argentinean until he proved that he could win at this level again. Not only did Schwartzman defeat fellow countryman Federico Coria, but he did so in dominant fashion and showed the world why he was a top-10 player in 2020. Now, we like his chances of giving Ruud a run for his money.
After the Australian Open, Ruud took some time off to give himself a short offseason. He then made his return in Acapulco last week and looked dreadful. Ruud’s decision to rest could benefit him later in the season, but he’s rusty heading into the Sunshine Double. That’s going to be hard to overcome against a guy like Schwartzman that is insanely competitive and forces opponents to hit a lot of balls.
Ruud could ultimately pull out a win here, but don’t expect him to do so without Schwartzman getting on the board first. Schwartzman looked like himself as a returner in his meeting with Coria, so he should be able to get into quite a few of Ruud’s service games.
Bet: Schwartzman To Win A Set (+100)
Shelby Rogers vs. Maria Sakkari
Considering Sakkari is the seventh-ranked player in the world, you might be feeling eager to pounce on her as a relatively small favorite against Rogers. But we’d strongly advise against it here, as we never suggest going for the “fool’s gold” play.
Rogers has also dominated this head-to-head series in the past. These two have met three times coming into this match, with all three meetings coming within the past two years. In those matches, Rogers is undefeated against Sakkari and has only dropped one set to the Greek star. Of course, things can change very fast on the WTA Tour, and Sakkari is undoubtedly the more talented player between these two. But we think that Rogers has a mental edge in this matchup, and that makes it hard not to back her in some way, shape or form.
Instead of taking Rogers to win, we’re going to play it a little safer and take her to cover the game spread. That protects us if Sakkari guts out a very close win.
Bet: Rogers +3.5 Games (-145)
Anna Kalinskaya vs. Karolina Pliskova
This is something of a dream draw for Kalinskaya early on, as she faced Alycia Parks in the opening round. Parks’ big serve and shaky baseline game were no match for an all-world defender like Kalinskaya in these slow, gritty conditions, which we predicted would be the case when we backed the Russian as a 2.5-game favorite. Now we like Kalinskaya to similarly give Pliskova trouble, which is why we’re taking her to win a set and then sprinkling a little on her to win outright.
Pliskova is a proven commodity compared to Parks, but the two are somewhat similar as players. Pliskova is one of the game’s elite servers and that’s the shot that has made her a special player throughout her career. But that serve won’t be quite as dangerous on a slower court, so we can see Kalinskaya having some success as a returner in this match. And Kalinskaya is a much better player from the baseline than Pliskova is, even if the 30-year-old does have an edge in strength.
It just isn’t hard to envision a scenario in which Pliskova gets frustrated with her inability to hit winners on this court. Meanwhile, Kalinskaya is going to continue to play her game and trust in the game plan that allowed her to beat Parks.
Bet: Kalinskaya To Win A Set (-160) & Kalinskaya ML (+145 – half-unit)