Tennis best bets for the French Open – Sunday, May 28th
The French Open is the second major of the tennis season, and it’s the only one that is played on clay. This year’s tournament will feel a bit different without 14-time champion Rafael Nadal, but the action should be tremendous from both the men and the women. There’s nothing quite like clay-court tennis, and we’ll be here with daily best bets for all the action at Roland Garros. With that said, keep reading for our picks for Sunday, May 28th. We have already had a very profitable clay-court season, and we’re hoping to keep it going for Day 1 in Paris. Make sure you also check out the Pro Picks page throughout the course of the tournament, as I’ll have some plays there that you won’t find here.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have
Pedro Martinez vs. Tallon Griekspoor
Griekspoor comes into this tournament on a run of poor form. He has lost five of his last seven matches and recently dropped out of the tournament in Geneva. The Dutchman has been dealing with a banged-up ankle, and that has hindered his play lately. And now he gets a difficult first-round matchup at Roland Garros.
Martinez has had an up-and-down 2023 season thus far, but he has figured things out a bit lately. The Spaniard has won seven of his last nine matches, with all of them coming on clay. And while he had to go through qualifying to get into the main draw of this event, he looked dominant in doing so.
The reality of a matchup like this one is that Martinez grew up on clay, and Griekspoor is a guy that has preferred hard-court tennis to this point in his career. So, with Griekspoor also struggling coming into this one, why not back the guy that’s more of a natural when it comes to playing on the dirt? There’s a reason he’s a favorite despite being ranked 135th in the world and going up against a top-40 player.
Bet: Martinez ML (-130)
Karolina Muchova vs. Maria Sakkari
This match feels like a trap from the oddsmakers, as Sakkari is a household name in the sport and isn’t favored to beat Muchova. But a deeper look at this matchup shows that there isn’t much that separates these players. And Muchova has actually had a lot of success against the Greek star in the past.
While Muchova is only ranked 42nd in the world right now, she has been as high as 19th in the rankings. Muchova has also been to the semifinals of a Grand Slam, which is all Sakkari has achieved to this point. Muchova also happens to be 2-1 against Sakkari in her career, with the two wins coming on clay. And one of the two wins happened to be in last year’s French Open, when Muchova came away with a straight-set win.
This matchup is a tough one for Sakkari because Muchova has the all-around baseline game to go toe to toe with her. But Muchova is also a bit more trustworthy with the ball on her racquet, so she should hold serve a bit easier than Sakkari. These slow courts won’t do Sakkari any favors with a serve that is already a bit faulty.
Not only do I like Muchova to win this match, but I also think she’s worthy of a futures play at +900 to win Quarter 3. The winner of this match should go on to make some noise in this tournament.
Bet: Muchova ML (-110)
French Open Futures
Carlos Alcaraz To Win (+160 – 5 units) – Alcaraz is the best player in the world right now. And while this number might not seem great, it’ll look a heck of a lot better when he’s a huge moneyline favorite in a potential quarter-final showdown with Stefanos Tsitsipas. The reality is that Alcaraz’s path to the semifinals isn’t all that difficult, and it’s hard to believe that even Novak Djokovic can beat him right now. The Serbian is banged up and hasn’t had any time to find his form. And Alcaraz would be a big favorite over anybody that comes from the bottom half of the draw. Play this one big and then sprinkle some money elsewhere.
Daniil Medvedev To Win (+1000 – 1 unit) & Casper Ruud To Win (+1800 – 0.5 units): These are the two guys that I like in the bottom half of the draw. Medvedev shouldn’t have any trouble emerging from his quarter, so he’s a good value at this price — even if he was available at +2500 a few weeks ago. And Ruud will have to go through Holger Rune in order to make the semifinals, but I like his chances there. Rune has played a ton of tennis in the first half of this season, and I’m not sure his body will hold up at Roland Garros. And Ruud is peaking at the right time, with his performance in Rome reminding the world why he was the 2022 French Open runner-up.
Karen Khachanov To Win Quarter 2 (+1200) – With Djokovic playing through some things, it feels like a good idea to try and squeeze some value out of this section of the bracket. And Khachanov is just a steal at these odds. The Russian should sleepwalk through his first two rounds, and he is going to feel good about his chances of competing against everybody he’ll face on his way to a potential matchup with Alcaraz in the semifinals. Khachanov made it to the quarterfinals here in 2019, and he has quietly played some of the best tennis of his career in 2023.
Aryna Sabalenka To Win (+650), Elena Rybakina To Win (+650), Barbora Krejcikova To Win (+2000 – 0.5 units) & Marketa Vondrousova To Win (+3500 – 0.5 units) – I’m not exactly sold on Iga Swiatek winning the French Open for a third time this year. There’s no denying that Swiatek is the best player in the world on clay, but the gap between her and the next three favorites is smaller than ever. And Swiatek comes into this tournament with some health concerns. So, I’m firing up plays on four players at great odds and hoping for the best. Don’t be surprised if it’s Krejcikova that actually ousts Swiatek. And if you’re wondering about the inclusion of Vondrousova here, the Czech is off to a great start to the 2023 season and is already a borderline top-10 talent. If anybody is going to get in Sabalenka’s way, it’s Vondrousova. So, I want a little action on her. She’s really tough to beat on clay.
Karolina Muchova To Win Quarter 3 (+900 – 1 unit) & Belinda Bencic To Win Quarter 3 (+800 – 1 unit) – This is the most open quarter in either of the two draws, so I’m taking some chances on players with great odds. Muchova has a really tough matchup against Maria Sakkari in the opening round of this event, but she’s poised for a run if she can get by the Greek star. And Bencic just has a very reasonable draw and is a tremendous player on all surfaces. The only concern with her is that she hasn’t played since April. But her easy opponents in the first couple of rounds should allow her to play her way into some rhythm. And she’s every bit as good as the other women in this section of the bracket.