Favorite bets on the 2023 US Open futures market

August 25, 2023 11:00 AM

2023 US Open futures bets 

The hard-court season is usually the most profitable portion of the tennis calendar, as the top players in the world spend the most time on this surface. That means there's a bigger sample size to look at when trying to analyze a player's form. With that in mind, I’ll have daily best bets for you for the two weeks of US Open action and I'm confident we can make some money on it. But I’m also shining some light on my favorite bets on the futures market here. So, make sure you keep reading for those. And continue coming back to VSiN throughout the course of the tournament, and make sure you’re checking our Pro Picks page for more plays. This is the most exciting of the four majors, as playing at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York gives this event some extra buzz. There's nothing like a great night match under the lights at Arthur Ashe Stadium. So, you’re going to want to soak in as much of the action as possible and having some skin in the game will only make it more exciting.

RELATED: Check out our Pro Picks page for daily US Open best bets 

US Open Men’s Futures

Hubert Hurkacz To Win Quarter 2 (+600) & Andrey Rublev To Win Quarter 2 (+650)

Daniil Medvedev is the favorite to win this quarter, but I’m not very high on him entering this tournament. Medvedev won this event back in 2021 and was also the best player in the world in the first quarter of this season. But Medvedev has been playing some mediocre tennis in recent weeks, and I think he’s ripe for an upset in his section of the draw. That gives guys like Hurkacz and Rublev chances of going deep at this tournament.

Hurkacz was playing some brilliant tennis in the weeks leading up to this event. In Toronto, Hurkacz beat Alexander Bublik and Miomir Kecmanovic before losing a thrilling three-set match against Carlos Alcaraz. Hurkacz then lost to Alcaraz in the semifinals in Cincinnati, and that was another three-set match that could have gone either way. But Hurkacz earned wins over Thanasi Kokkinakis, Borna Coric and Stefanos Tsitsipas before running into the Spaniard. He has looked very sturdy from the baseline since the hard-court swing picked back up, and his elite serve gives him a very high floor. And there's no shame in losing to Alcaraz, especially when you're that close to beating him. 

As for Rublev, things haven’t been quite as good for the Russian in recent weeks. Rublev has lost both of the hard-court matches he has played in the last month, but I’m willing to ignore that because of his past performances at Grand Slams. Rublev seems to regularly make it to the quarterfinals in these events, making him a guy you can rely on in best-of-five matches. With that in mind, I’m taking a chance on him to turn things around and perform at a high level in Flushing Meadows. He has made it to the quarters here in two of the last three years. I can easily see him taking it a step further here, especially if Medvedev is bounced early.

Casper Ruud To Win Quarter 3 (+550) 

Ruud has been miserable since making it to the finals of the French Open. The Norwegian suffered a second-round loss at Wimbledon, and his best run since was a runner-up finish in which he was wiped off the floor by Rublev at the Swedish Open. Considering that came on clay, Ruud’s best surface, it left quite a bit to be desired. Ruud also went just 1-2 on the road to the US Open — and he’s just 6-8 in his last 14 hard-court matches — so the surface success hasn’t quite been there. Still, there’s something about him that makes him hard to bet against at majors, especially with this draw.

With three finals appearance in the last six Grand Slams, it’s clear that Ruud has an edge over opponents in a best-of-five setting. That probably has a lot to do with his world-class fitness and all-court game, which give him as high a floor as anyone outside of Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. Either way, it makes him a guy that I trust to make deep runs in the biggest events. Overall, I’m just not sure he’ll run into much trouble before a potential Round 4 matchup with Frances Tiafoe. And that’s a match I’d expect Ruud to win, which would put him in nice shape to win the quarter because I’m expecting a lot of funny business in Holger Rune’s section of the draw.

US Open Women’s Futures

Victoria Azarenka To Win Quarter 2 (+1600 - 0.5 units)

I’m not exactly impressed with the way Azarenka has been playing heading into this tournament, but I do think that this is a quarter that could get a little crazy. Elena Rybakina is the top-seeded player in this draw, but she has been dealing with on-and-off injuries coming into this tournament. She also hasn’t performed at a high level at the US Open to this point in her career, making it somewhat hard to trust her. That said, I think it’s worth taking a chance on a long shot to make it out of this section of the draw. And I think Azarenka is your best bet out of all of them. Azarenka is a three-time US Open finalist, and she was the runner-up as recently as 2020. And I don’t see many matches with the potential to trip her up early on. She is still one of the better servers on tour, and she has a lot of power from the baseline. 

Liudmila Samsonova To Win Quarter 3 (+600) & Win The US Open (+5000 - 0.25 units) 

Samsonova suffered a rough first-round loss at the hands of Linda Noskova in Cincinnati, but that was after the 24-year-old played one of the most difficult schedules imaginable in Montreal. Samsonova was simply exhausted after having played four matches over the span of two days to finish out her run in Canada, where she ultimately lost 6-1, 6-0 at the hands of Jessica Pegula. But Samsonova would have put up a fight if she wasn’t that fatigued there, and she should be well rested heading into the US Open. That said, I love her to make it out of a draw that is headlined by Pegula and Caroline Garcia, who are two of the weaker top-seeded players in the women’s game. There just aren’t many players in the world that are better than Samsonova on this surface, and the stats back it up. Samsonova has the seventh-highest hard-court Elo rating in the world. That tells me that the Russian is wrongly priced heading into the tournament. And I legitimately believe she has a chance to win this thing. 

US Open Thoughts and Predictions

On the men's side, I like Alcaraz to win. I know he just lost to Djokovic in a thrilling three-set match in Cincinnati, but the Spaniard had that match won and took his foot off the gas. That should serve as a valuable learning lesson for him moving forward. Overall, I still think Alcaraz is a slightly better player than Djokovic right now. And I think the court conditions in New York should favor him. These hard courts will play a little slower than they did in Cincinnati, making it much harder for Djokovic to get the ball by Alcaraz consistently. I do, however, think it's important to pass on playing Alcaraz to win it all before the tournament. He's only going off at +190 at DraftKings Sportsbook, and you would very likely get plus-money odds on the 20-year-old in a finals matchup with Djokovic. So, why risk anything until then? 

As for the women, I took Coco Gauff to win this event at +1400 a few weeks ago, but she's now down to +700. At that price, I wouldn't suggest playing her (I'd take it at +900 or better still). She has a pretty tough draw in her quarter alone, with potential showdowns against Mirra Andreeva, Danielle Collins and Iga Swiatek all being ones that can give her issues. Ultimately, I think the winner of a potential quarter-final matchup between Swiatek and Gauff will win the tournament. I think Swiatek is likely to come through if they do meet, but I'm not confident enough to bet it. Samsonova is the only outright bet I'm making with both the men and the women. I just love her chances of making the final, and you'd be able to hedge for an enormous profit if she gets there. 

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