ATP Monte-Carlo Masters: Tennis best bets for Struff vs. Ruud, Rublev vs. Khachanov, Medvedev vs. Zverev – Thursday, April 13th
The ATP Monte-Carlo Masters tournament is the first Masters 1000 event of the season that is played on a clay-court surface. We’re fresh off the Sunshine Double, which featured some of the best talents in the world competing in 1000-level events on the hard courts of Indian Wells and Miami. But we’re now gearing up for the 2023 French Open, so get used to seeing a lot of red clay over the next couple of weeks. With this being yet another massive event in the tennis season, VSiN is here to provide you with daily tennis best bets. So, keep reading to find out what Zachary Cohen is betting on the tennis schedule for Thursday, April 13th. Also, check out our tennis odds page to see the lines on all of the day’s matches.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 13
Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Casper Ruud
Ruud is coming off a 7-5, 7-6 (1) win over Botic van de Zandschulp, and that match should get him prepared for this meeting with Struff. Both opponents are bigger players that pack a lot of punch, but Ruud’s topspin-heavy strokes are extremely effective on slower courts. And overall, the Norwegian is really starting to round into form at the right time. Ruud won the clay event in Estoril last week, and he’s finding his best stuff as we approach the French Open.
With clay being Ruud’s best surface, it’s just hard not to like him to beat up on Struff in this match. Struff’s serve is definitely a weapon that can be hard to deal with, but Ruud will be aided by the fact that the ball won’t bounce quite as fast on the dirt. That’ll give him some time to get serves back in play, and Ruud’s going to have a massive advantage on longer rallies.
Look for Ruud to win this one in straight sets, and don’t be surprised if the Norwegian ends up marching to the final at this event. Ruud struggled a bit during the Sunshine Double after opting to take time off after the Australian Open. But he knows his body better than anyone and clearly feels it was in his best interest to go into the clay-court season with fresh legs.
Bet: Ruud -1.5 Sets (-135)
Karen Khachanov vs. Andrey Rublev
Khachanov is having the best season of his career, as he has a 68.2% winning percentage since the start of 2023. Khachanov also made runs to the semifinals at both the Australian Open and the Miami Open, and he now looks laser-focused in Monte-Carlo. The 26-year-old has earned straight-set wins over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Ilya Ivashka, and he now turns his attention to his doubles partner.
These two haven’t faced one another since 2021, but it’s hard not to view Khachanov as the one that is more likely to prevail here. While Rublev is ranked a bit higher than Khachanov, the three-month trending UTR (Universal Tennis Rating) tells a different story. Khachanov is the sixth-best player in the world according to that metric. That shows you how good his currently form is. And clay has been Rublev’s worst surface throughout his career.
With all of that in mind, this just seems like a great spot to back Khachanov. He has also won us a lot of bets over the last few months, so it only feels right.
Bet: Khachanov ML (-115)
Alexander Zverev vs. Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev and Zverev played a very tough match at Indian Wells a few weeks ago. Medvedev ended up prevailing in two tiebreakers in that one, but that was a hard-court match. This one is going to be played on clay, which gives Zverev a pretty significant advantage. Zverev has won three Masters 1000 titles on outdoor clay, and he has the sixth-highest raw Elo rating on clay amongst all players. Meanwhile, Medvedev is just 44th on that raw clay Elo rating list. He really, really hates this surface.
Zverev also looked very sharp in his win over Roberto Bautista Agut last match, and he just looks more and more confident every time he gets on the court. That ankle seems to be holding up very well, so the only thing that’s left for Zverev to do is break through and get a taste for big victories again. And that’s exactly what we think he’ll do here. Zverev understands how to get the job done on clay, while Medvedev would rather complain about what isn’t working.
Bet: Zverev ML (+125)
*Make sure you check out our Pro Picks page, as Zach occasionally adds bets that aren’t listed here