ATP Monte-Carlo Masters: Tennis best bets for Fritz vs. Rublev, Rune vs. Sinner - Saturday, April 15th

By Zachary Cohen  ( 

April 14, 2023 12:39 PM

ATP Monte-Carlo Masters: Tennis best bets for Fritz vs. Rublev, Rune vs. Sinner - Saturday, April 15th

We're down to four players remaining in the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters, which is the first 1000-level tournament of the year that's played on clay. With this being yet another massive event in the tennis season, VSiN is here to provide you with daily tennis best bets. With that in mind, check out what we have for a pair of semi-final matchups on Saturday, April 15th. We're going to see Taylor Fritz face Andrey Rublev, while Holger Rune takes on Jannik Sinner. That's a lot of young firepower for one day, so this should be some great tennis. 

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 15

Taylor Fritz vs. Andrey Rublev

It's somewhat terrifying betting against Fritz right now. The American doesn't have a good track record on clay, but he has looked good on the surface this week. However, it feels like it'd be irresponsible to ignore an entire career's worth of clay-court results in favor of a few matches. And Rublev has been far more trustworthy on the dirt at the tour level. 

In his career, Rublev is 51-30 with a 63.0% winning percentage in clay-court matches, while Fritz is just 29-25 with a winning percentage of 53.7%. And while Fritz is 7-3 on clay if you break it down to the last 52 weeks, Rublev is 17-7 if you do the same with him. 

Fritz has a slight advantage with the ball on his racquet here, especially with his second serve being a lot better than Rublev's. But on a court this slow, the serve isn't the advantage you want to have. It's far more important to be the better baseline player, and Rublev has Fritz beat there. The Russian has a little more power from both sides, while also being a more fluid mover. 

This should end up being a very competitive match, and it wouldn't be all that shocking if Fritz ended up winning. But it's hard to look at Rublev's history on clay and not view this as a good value on the moneyline. 

Bet: Rublev ML (-115)

Holger Rune vs. Jannik Sinner

It almost feels unfair to say that there's pressure on Sinner to win his maiden Masters 1000 title this weekend, as he's only 21 years old. However, Sinner is the best player remaining in this field, and he is in the best form of anybody coming into these semifinals. And with Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev having been eliminated, along with Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz withdrawing from the tournament, when will Sinner have a better chance? 

There's no denying that Rune is a tremendous player, and he is fresh off a straight-set win over a red-hot Medvedev. However, Medvedev was probably gassed after having battled Alexander Zverev the night before this one. And there aren't many things that Rune does at a higher level than Sinner. The two are very similar when it comes to serving, but Sinner is the better returner. So, he should get a few more opportunities to break in this match. And Sinner is the more powerful player from the baseline, as well as the better mover — he was hitting some outrageous shots on the move in his blowout win over Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals. 

Sinner also happens to have more experience playing later in big tournaments. He has done it a lot recently, as he made it to the semis at Indian Wells and then went all the way to the final at the Miami Open. With all of that in mind, it's hard not to back Sinner here — even with Rune having won a 1000-level event in the past. You could play it at the moneyline, but -180 is a little too rich for our blood. So, we're rolling with the Italian on the game spread. 

Bet: Sinner -2.5 Games (-120)

back to news

Live On Air

Streaming Now: Sunday Bet Prep

play Watch Live radio Listen Live


Matt Youmans: Heat (+8.5) at Nuggets. View more picks.


The Lombardi Line: Both the Nuggets and Heat shot poorly in Game 1 of the NBA Finals - and the total is down five points in Game 2 (219.5 to 214.5). Consider betting the OVER if you expect any positive regression. View more tips.