2023 US Open Tennis Betting Guide: Expert predictions, tips and best odds
Dive into our comprehensive US Open tennis betting guide, where our expert provides detailed predictions, valuable tips, and the latest odds for this prestigious tennis tournament at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York. Stay ahead of the game with our analysis, and increase your chances of winning your bets on this year's US Open matches.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for all 2023 US Open best bets
Introduction to US Open Tennis Betting
Overview of the US Open tournament:
The US Open is held annually in Flushing Meadows, where the top players in the world compete in the final Grand Slam of the year. Last year, Carlos Alcaraz took home the men’s title, while Iga Swiatek won it for the women. This year, both players will feel great about their chances of winning for the second time in a row. But it’s actually Novak Djokovic that enters as the men's favorite this year. Djokovic was unable to compete in the event last year because of his vaccination status, but he is a three-time US Open champion. And he comes into this tournament on the heels of winning a Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati.
Why the US Open is popular among bettors:
All four Grand Slams are big for sports bettors, even ones that aren’t huge tennis fans. But this is the final one of the year, and being located in New York gives it a little extra buzz. There’s nothing like a good night match at Arthur Ashe Stadium, and the non-stop action throughout the day is just as thrilling. There’s going to be some high-quality tennis played over the next few weeks, and tennis can be a very profitable sport to bet on if you’re doing your research. So, why wouldn’t this be a popular event to bet on?
Types of bets available for the US Open:
With the US Open, bettors will have the ability to bet straights, parlays and player props all throughout the tournament. There are also plenty of futures markets available, which gives you the chance to bet on things like the outright winner or the winner of a specific quarter. Live betting is also an option in tennis, and that’s one we’ll get into a bit more later. Come back to VSiN in the afternoon on Friday, when we’ll have more futures posted after a deeper look at the draw.
Expert Predictions and Match Analysis
Top seeds and their performance trends:
The top seeds on the men’s side are Djokovic and Alcaraz. The gap between those two players isn’t all that large, especially on hard-court surfaces. These two just played an instant classic against one another at the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati, where Djokovic emerged with a 5-7, 7-6 (7), 7-6 (4) win over Alcaraz despite having nearly had to retire because of heat stroke in the first set. These two are now tied at two wins apiece in their head-to-head history, so all eyes will be on them heading into this event. Everybody on the planet is desperate for a fifth encounter, especially with them having split wins in the last two major finals. But don’t sleep on guys like Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner. Both have the talent to do special things in Flushing Meadows.
On the women’s side, Swiatek is the favorite to win this title. The player with the second-best odds to win is Aryna Sabalenka, who won the Australian Open earlier in the year. Sabalenka’s big serve and powerful game makes her a natural fit on this surface, but she has had some trouble closing out matches since letting the French Open slip away in June. The only player close to the other two in odds is Elena Rybakina, who also has a game that should eventually translate into major championships on this surface. And one last player to keep an eye on is Coco Gauff, who has won two of the last three tournaments she has played. The American is playing the best tennis of her career right now, and the New York crowd will be firmly in her corner.
Potential upsets and dark horses:
If you want some long shots to play on the men’s side, Hubert Hurkacz and Tommy Paul stand out as two that can make deep runs. We haven’t yet seen what the draw looks like, so it’s hard to predict success right now. But Hurkacz’s serve gives him the ability to regularly stay close in matches, even against the game’s best players. He nearly beat Alcaraz in Cincinnati, where his baseline game looked tremendous. So, it wouldn’t be crazy if he were to go deep in New York, allowing you to hedge and guarantee a nice payout later in the event. Paul is another one that should be taken rather seriously. He has really improved in 2023, and he comes into this event playing at a top-10 level. Paul likely doesn’t have what it takes to actually win this tournament, but he can make a run and give you some hedging opportunities. He did it at the Australian Open.
On the women’s side, two players I like before looking at the draw are Mirra Andreeva and Liudmila Samsonova. Andreeva is only 16 years old, but she has the potential to be an elite player for a very long time. Considering her power game is already in a very good place, I don’t think much is preventing her from making a deep run at a major very early in her career. Don’t be surprised if she makes some noise in New York. As for Samsonova, there aren’t many players in the world that are better than she is on hard courts. So, while she isn’t exactly a household name, she is somebody that demands your attention over the next few weeks.
Impact of playing surface and conditions on match outcomes:
These courts aren’t as slow as clay or as fast as grass, so it takes an all-court player to win an event like the US Open. Big servers definitely have something of an advantage on this surface — like they do on all surfaces — but it’s moot if they can’t win extended rallies. There has also been some talk of the court playing a bit slower than usual this year. It’ll be interesting to see if that’s the case heading into the event. If it’s true, Alcaraz and Swiatek stand to benefit more than anyone else.
Best Betting Tips for US Open Success
Analyzing player form and head-to-head statistics:
Recent form is something you’re going to want to look at before the US Open. Statistics like hold percentage and break percentage are also very important here, as they are on any surface. You want somebody that holds at a high clip and breaks at a high clip. It’s very unlikely that the winner of this tournament doesn’t do both at a high level. But the hard-court season really builds up before the US Open, so we have a good idea of who is playing well right now. Make sure you look at recent wins and losses before betting anything here. You should also look back to recent installments of this tournament to see how players have performed at the US Open in the past.
Factors to consider when betting on specific match types (e.g. men's singles, women's singles, doubles):
One thing to make sure to remember early on is that this tournament follows a best-of-five format for the men, like every other major does. So, if you see higher totals and spreads than you’re used to, that’s the reason why. But it’s business as usual on the women’s side, as the WTA always sticks with the best-of-three format. Another thing to remember is that the final set in majors is now decided by a 10-point tiebreaker, if needed.
Odds Comparison: Finding the Best US Open Betting Lines
Top sportsbooks offering US Open tennis odds:
All of the major sportsbooks, including DraftKings Sportsbook, are going to have lines available for the US Open. Make sure you sign up for as many of them as you can before betting on this event.
Tips for comparing odds and finding value bets:
It’s just important to have as many options as possible with tennis. You’ll find different lines everywhere, so make sure you’re shopping around and getting the best price. Also, make sure you check out the different spread options. You can find the same player at -4.5 games in one spot and -3.5 games in another. The same goes for player props. Some sportsbooks have more options than others. Make sure you familiarize yourself with them, as betting on props can be a very profitable strategy in tennis. DraftKings Sportsbook has one of the best offerings you’ll find for tennis.
Live Betting on US Open Tennis Matches
Benefits of live betting during US Open:
Live betting at the US Open isn’t as easy as it is at the French Open. It’s not as common to break serve on hard courts as it is on clay, so you can’t exactly target players that go down breaks here. But you will have plenty of opportunities to bet live, so it’s always important to keep an eye out for good prices.
Key in-play betting strategies and tips:
At this tournament, the best way to bet live is to just look for players that you liked before a match to go down early. Talent generally tends to win out in the end no matter what the surface is.
Factors to monitor during live betting (e.g. player momentum, fatigue, injury concerns):
The best players in the world tend to be in better shape than their opponents. That’s why you don’t see as many upsets on the men’s side of things during Grand Slams. It’s hard to find energy in the fourth and fifth sets, and that’s why you have such a good shot at making money with live betting at majors — and especially this major. So, keep an eye on high-ranked players as often as you can. If they go down early, especially on the men’s side, you should try and back them at better prices. Overall, you should be monitoring matches and checking out X (formerly known as Twitter) for updates. If a player is struggling with heat and humidity, you will want to know that so you can bet their opponent.
Boost Your Betting Strategy with US Open Specials and Promotions
How to take advantage of special offers and boosts:
If you have any free bets to use, the US Open can be a great place to take advantage of them. Betting on futures is one of the best ways to utilize those free bets, as you can take a risk-free shot on a player with great odds. Backing one of the players we called attention to earlier can be a great play here. All it would take is a deep run from one of them before you can start hedging later on for guaranteed profit.