February has arrived, which means conference tournaments are not that far away. At this point, we have a pretty good idea of what teams have to work with, especially because COVID-19 pauses have become few and far between. Some teams are definitely playing better than anticipated and others are going to pick it up as the games start to increase in importance.
It’s also a good time to look at some of the teams with the best and worst ATS records. The sportsbooks are plenty aware of the teams that have burned them and those that have been good to them. Expect lines for those teams to be adjusted, if they haven’t already.
Best ATS record by winning percentage
Middle Tennessee: 14-3-1
Worst ATS record by winning percentage
Morgan State: 3-11
Idaho State: 4-13
Southern Utah: 4-13
The bigger the name, the more likely the oddsmakers are to make their adjustments. Auburn is the only name from a power conference on that list, but teams like NC State (6-16) and Oregon State (5-12-1) will also catch some attention.
Because there are 358 teams to consider, the sportsbooks are always going to prioritize the major conferences. Those games get the biggest handles. There might be $20,000 on a Big Ten game for every $200 on a MAAC game, so they’re going to pick and choose their battles. That’s a big reason I prefer looking at the smaller conferences pretty much across the board.
Here are some teams to back and fade this week and beyond.
Teams to fade
Hawaii: The Rainbow Warriors have been very impressive with a 7-0 start in the Big West and 11-5 overall. They erased a 23-4 deficit against UC Santa Barbara to pull out a three-point victory and get the cover at home on Saturday.