Team Tuley's Thoroughbred Takes for races on Saturday 4/30

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

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There’s no NBA or NHL games on Saturday, but even though there’s Day 3 of the NFL Draft and a full MLB card, there’s still time for horse racing as we’re warming up for the Kentucky Derby next Saturday.

I’m joined today by my friend, Ed Sehon – who just completed his 15-day gig with “Mr. Ed’s Keeneland on (about) $100 a Day – along with Rampart race and sports book manager Duane Colucci and John Lauro as we look for value at tracks from coast to coast, including Belmont, Churchill and Santa Anita.

Good luck today (and every day).

SATURDAY

Belmont Race No. 4 (2:54 p.m. ET/11:54 a.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes #10 Smile Bryan (4-1 morning line). “Veteran N.Y. circuit campaigner returns to turf route following so-so effort in minor dirt stakes. Wiley conditioner Mike Miceli adds blinkers and retains Manny Franco. Smile a little smile for me, Bryan. Wager: Win and Place.”

 

Belmont Race No. 5 (3:23 p.m. ET/12:23 p.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes #11 Know It All Audrey (15-1 morning line). “John Toscano filly comes off a nice 7-furlong score and had a bullet work on April 24. Javy Castellano takes the mount and should run well at a price. Bet 11 to Win and key 11 over 4,6,10 in Exactas, Trifectas and reverse.”

 

Belmont Race No. 8 (5:01 p.m. ET/2:01 p.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes #8 Lord Flintshire (7-2 morning line). “Away since Showing from out of the clouds last November vs. similar, this guy is way overdue for return to winner’s circle. Up-and-coming trainer Jorge Abreu entices Irad Ortiz Jr. to take reins following speedy workout over training oval. Royalty rules the roost. Wager: Win and Place, plus Daily Double with #6 Value Proposition (3-1) in Race 9, the Elusive Quality Stakes”

 

Belmont Race No. 9 (5:32 p.m. ET/2:32 p.m. PT)

John Lauro likes #7 Snapper Sinclair (4-1 morning line) and #11 Therapist (5-1 morning line) in an Exacta box in the $100,000 Elusive Quality Stakes.

 

Dave Tuley likes #9 Milton the Monster (12-1 morning line). “Duane Colucci’s top place in this race, #8 Toro Strike, was scratched, so I might as well join the others with a pick. My upsetter play is a 5-year-old gelding trained by John Servis. He’s trying the grass for the first time, but has turf breeding. He should be able to sit a stalking trip under jockey Frankie Pennington (26 percent for Servis the past two months. Wager: Win and Place.”

 

Golden Gate Race No. 7 (7:18 p.m. ET/4:18 p.m. PT)

Dave Tuley likes #2 Northwest Factor (6-1 morning line) in the $75,000 Golden Poppy Stakes. “This Manuel Badilla trainee should be the controlling speed and has a chance to steal this on the front end under jockey Pedro, who has 5 wins the past week and is hitting 29 percent with Badilla. I also love the work pattern (every seven days the past three weeks) leading to her return. Wager: Win.”

 

Santa Anita Race No. 10 (7:36 p.m. ET/4:36 p.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes #3 Blue Stripe (6-1) in the Grade 2 Santa Margarita Stakes. “Argentinian-bred has solid works since her decent effort in the Breeders’ Cup. She did finish ahead of Letruska that day and easily can go 1 1/8 miles. Jockey Tyler Baze and Marcelo Polanco have a $2.90 ROI when teaming up. Class edge here. Bet 3 to Win and key 3 over 4,7,9 in Exactas, Trifectas and reverse.”

 

Churchill Race No. 5 (7:57 p.m. ET/4:57 p.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes #1 Old Pho (7-2 morning line). “One of my favorite trainers, Al Stall Jr., returns son of American Pharoah to the dirt after being bumped and spitting the bit in turf sprint. Blazing work shows speed. Colby Hernandez, whose ridden filly before, back in the saddle. If she can break, she will wire this field. Wager: Win.”

 

Santa Anita Race No. 12 (9:38 p.m. ET/6:38 p.m. PT)

Dave Tuley likes #1 Clayton Delaney (6-1 morning line). “This 5-year-old gelding makes 2022 debut going down the hillside turf course (and he’s 2-for-5 lifetime on the course) and trainer Phillip D’Amato has him well-placed in this allowance race. Should be able to have a ground-saving trip under Ricardo Gonzalez and make winning move in the stretch. Wager: Win.”

 

Churchill Race No. 8 (9:39 p.m. ET/6:39 p.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes #12 Richies Great Girl (12-1 morning line). “Mare posts impressive in-the-money record (17-7-4-1). On paper, mare appears to fit allowance conditions  Larry Rivelli is sharp trainer and young rider Geraldo Corrales more than capable of scoring upset at generous odds. Wager: Win and Place.”

 

Note: also check out our A.I. Pick of the Week at vsin.com/horses early this afternoon as we’ve gone 26-for-53 (just below 50 percent) since taking over the feature at this time last year. There are also more plays from 1ST/BET handicappers on that page at vsin.com/horses.

 
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