Week 9 Tuesday games feature Liberty vs. Western Kentucky
This will be the last week of Conference USA weeknight games, as all of us have probably seen more than we bargained for with the teams in this conference. Any football on Tuesday night is good football and we’ll continue to have some more, it just won’t come from C-USA.
New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech battle it out, along with Liberty and Western Kentucky, which was thought to be the biggest game of the year in the conference up until last week when WKU lost a stunner to Jacksonville State. It may still be a conference championship game preview, but the Hilltoppers have some work to do now.
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Odds as of 10/23, 2:30 p.m. PT
Liberty Flames (-4.5, 60) at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
The Flames are 7-0 and are off to a 5-0 conference record, but the way that they’ve done it has been a little bit surprising. Head coach Jamey Chadwell relied heavily on Grayson McCall at Coastal Carolina. With Liberty, he is using the running game extensively. Kaidon Salter has done well with a 57.9% completion rate and a strong 16/3 TD/INT ratio, but the Flames have 340 rush attempts against 155 pass attempts.
It helps to have a mobile QB in Salter. He’s the second-leading rusher with 497 yards on 85 carries, but Quinton Cooley is still the man atop the chart with 726 yards for 122 carries. Liberty is averaging 5.7 yards per carry. When the Flames do throw, they’re averaging 17 yards per reception, so explosive plays are coming left and right.
The Hilltoppers are 110th in the country in run defense with 4.8 yards per carry allowed and they’ve given up over 200 rushing yards per game. That means it will be a run-heavy approach once again from Liberty.
In so many ways, WKU has been disappointing this season. Austin Reed threw for 4,744 yards and had a 64.6% completion rate last season with 40 TD passes. This season, he’s only thrown for 1,915 yards with a 59.2% completion rate and 16 TD tosses. Reed has a bona fide Sunday wide receiver in Malachi Corley, but the team badly needs a WR2 and even a WR3 to emerge. Last year’s group had that with Daewood Davis and Jaylen Hall. This year’s group does not.
The Flames defense has dropped off a bit lately, allowing over a half-yard more per play here in October compared to September. In looking up and down the slate of opponents for Liberty, they’ve played the 137th-ranked schedule in the nation. Western Kentucky is 112th, but that includes a game against Ohio State, which makes up nearly all of the difference.
Liberty was rather soft on the back end against MTSU last week, as Nick Vattiato threw for 332 yards and four touchdowns. Western Kentucky was soft in run support last week, as Jacksonville State QB Zion Webb rushed for 146 yards on 28 carries and the Gamecocks had 4.8 yards per carry and 262 total yards on the ground. Salter and Liberty are a much more effective, higher-efficiency running attack.
Therefore, I’m thinking the Over 60 in this game. The weather looks great and both teams have some defensive weaknesses against offensive strengths.
Pick: Over 60
Other Tuesday Game
New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech (-2.5, 52): The Aggies still come into this one with 7.61 yards per play on offense, as they draw a Louisiana Tech team that ranks 66th in that department with 5.77 YPP. The Bulldogs are a little bit better on defense and maybe that’s why they’re laying a short number here in Ruston.
New Mexico State has played one of the worst schedules in FBS as well. It does seem tough to be interested in the Bulldogs, though, as they’ve lost five of eight games and have only beaten FIU, Northwestern State, and UTEP. It’s a game where neither team is really worth your money in my estimation. But, your view may vary and our matchup link might shed some more light.
