T Shoe Index Résumé Rankings: Buy/Sell
I wrote last week before the initial College Football Playoff rankings that I likely wasn’t going to have too many qualms with the CFP Committee’s decisions, aside from the gut feeling that they were going to put Georgia in the top four despite my power and résumé rankings strongly against that. The Dawgs were No. 2 in the initial rankings and picked up a good win against Missouri by nine points at home on Saturday. We’ll see if that’s enough to jump Ohio State, who didn’t look particularly sharp for three quarters against Rutgers, for the No. 1 spot this week. Georgia aside, I want to look at some teams that I feel like we learned something about - or maybe had our feelings reinforced on.
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I think there’s a legitimate chance that Oregon is the best team in the country right now. They dismantled Cal 63-19, and continue to look good on both sides of the ball. I honestly don’t know at this point how they lost to Washington. The Ducks have the No. 3 rated offense in my T Shoe Index and the No. 8 defense. The take on The Alex Grinch-less USC Trojans this week, so the defense will take another test against Caleb Williams and company, though I have my doubts about how much USC has left in the tank after an emotional, hard-fought loss to Washington. The Ducks are +1000 to win the national championship, and that might be worth a nibble.
Speaking of Washington, there’s no better unit to get right against after a couple of clunkers than USC. Michael Penix and the Huskies offense stuck the final nail in the coffin of the seemingly immortal Alex Grinch. I’m curious to see how they respond against a Utah team that is resilient, tough and suddenly not a corpse on offense after dropping 55 on Arizona State last week.
Sell: Notre Dame, LSU
Notre Dame and LSU are two teams that I’m going to look at fading the rest of the season, because all of their goals for the season are now effectively off the table, so I’m curious how motivated they are to take care of business the next few weeks. Notre Dame felt the wrath of Tyler from Spartanburg, as Dabo’s Tigers handed them a 31-23 loss in Death Valley, which also has ramifications outside of the Golden Domers because that was a win that Ohio State was clinging to and has now lost some luster. The impact of that could be felt on selection Sunday if the Buckeyes lose to Michigan for the third straight year.
I feel bad for Jayden Daniels the same way I feel bad for Caleb Williams; two phenomenal talents that have been repeatedly let down by porous defenses on their respective teams. I thought LSU was going to have a legitimate chance to beat Alabama, but the defense gave up 42 and the offense couldn’t muster enough to even get into the 30s. Which brings me to my last point; Alabama is not only alive as a CFP contender, but I’d argue should be no worse than co-favorites in the SEC. The Tide is still +800 to win the national championship, and I wouldn’t discourage you at all from taking a flier on that ticket.
To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free CFB guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.
Here is the TSI Top 25 Résumé Rankings (to be viewed as how TSI would vote in a committee-style ranking), which is a function of strength of schedule to date (based on TSI power ratings and game location), W/L record, and margin of victory.
My Top 25 résumé rankings: