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SYSTEMS TO TURN NFL WEEK 1 RESULTS INTO WEEK 2 PROFITS

By Steve Makinen  () 

The opening week of the NFL season is always chock full of big performances, surprise results, and other generally overblown storylines. This year was no different, and, as always, it will lead us into some nice betting opportunities for week 2. In terms of results of week 1, underdogs got the overall edge, winning nine games against the spread while favorites took seven. OVER’s held a 9-7 edge on UNDER’s as far totals were concerned. Four underdogs won their games outright, including Tennessee, who kicked off as a 6-point dog at upstart Cleveland. There were some very high scores as well, led by Baltimore, who put up 59 on Miami. Of course, week 1 is now in the books, and it’s time to get back down to the business of looking ahead to week 2. For our purposes, as we look ahead to the next batch of games as bettors, we are most interested in how the week 1 results can be used to turn into week 2 profts.

That’s where this article comes in, as I have analyzed numerous week 1 to week 2 transitional situations in the NFL to uncover some highly proftable systems to utilize in the coming weekend. Before getting into the top week 2 systems and qualifying plays for 2019 however, let’s theorize as to why some of this logic might be successful. First off, the NFL is a huge momentum league, and with one game every week, it gives a team a lot of time to either stew on a loss or bask in a victory. During this time, the losing teams may be starting to doubt themselves, or the winning teams may be thinking too highly of their own games. The betting public and media sensationalize this type of thinking, and theorize that what they just saw in week 1 is the new standard.

Bookmakers are thus placed in a precarious position of having to juggle what just happened with what should happen in the follow-up week along with what the public thinks will happen. It is a fne balancing act. In my opinion, the systems below come as a result of two things, frst, bookmakers not wanting to over-adjust, and second, bookmakers trying to balance their sides against new public sentiment. Over-adjusting seems to be more common in college football, but in the pro’s, with all the money that is wagered each week, they realize that they can’t radically adjust their lines in such a short window simply because of one game result.

They are forced to wait out the frst few weeks of any given season in hopes that everything balances out. Because of this “oddsmaker patience”, I believe that these one week transitional systems are only valid this early in the season. So let’s take a look, and then take advantage. Think of the above explanation as you read through each system, and trust in those that you think make the most sense. In all there are 17 different angles, each with a winning percentage of at least 58%. None of our systems fell off from last year’s list either, meaning they are showing good longevity.

1. Week 2 teams playing as favorites OR underdogs of less than 3 points against an opponent that scored more than 30 points in the prior week are 38-11 SU & 33-13-3 ATS (71.7%) since ‘03 ( 18.6 units, R.O.I.: 40.4%, Grade 70)

2019 Plays: Play ON Cincinnati, Atlanta, Indianapolis

Analysis: It seems that these 30-point teams may have overachieved in week 1 and are naturally due for a letdown, or an overinfated line in week 2. There were a very high total of seven teams that topped the 30-point mark last weekend.

2. Teams that beat their week 1 point spread by 8 points or more in nonconference games are 18-5-3 UNDER (78.3%) the total in week 2 since ‘02 ( 12.5 units, R.O.I.: 54.3%, Grade 70)

2019 Plays: UNDER in SF-CIN Analysis: Week 1 overachievers that lit it up against unfamiliar opponents typically come back down to earth offensively against higher totals.

3. Teams that lost on the point spread by 15 or more points in week 1 divisional games are 10-4 SU & 11-2-1 ATS (84.6%) in week 2 since ‘07 ( 8.8 units, R.O.I.: 67.6%, Grade 65)

2019 Plays: Play ON NONE

Analysis: Second week point spread adjustments tend to go against teams that were blown out by divisional opponents in week 1, are in most cases over-adjustments. For 2019, unfortunately we have no qualifers as the Giants (-11.5) and Chicago (-10) were the biggest divisional game point spread losers.

4. Week 1 favorites of 6-points or more that lost their game have bounced back with a record of 14-4 SU & ATS (77.7%) in week 2 since ‘02 ( 9.6 units, R.O.I.: 53.3%, Grade 65)

2019 Plays: Play ON Cleveland

Analysis: Teams favored by 6-points or more in week 1 are typically well-respected clubs in the NFL, and naturally they tend to bounce back when aided by a sense of urgency. For 2019, Cleveland went into week 1 perhaps over-hyped. Now that the pressure may be off a bit after the season opening loss, the Brown could unleash. This system is currently on a 5-1 SU & ATS surge.

5. Teams playing a second straight divisional game in week 2 are an impressive 30-11-1 SU & 29-12-1 ATS (70.7%) since ‘03 ( 15.8 units, R.O.I.: 38.6%, Grade 65)

2019 Plays: Play ON Green Bay, Oakland, Washington Analysis: Divisional games typically require greater focus and intensity, and these teams are well prepared the second time around. In 2018, the Packers played a second straight divisional contest against the Vikings, and wound up in a 29-29 tie as 1-point home dogs. For 2019, there are three teams playing a second straight divisional tilt to start the year, including Oakland, who is a home dog in back-to-back games.

6. Teams that won close games in week 1 (3 points or less) are 28-14-1 UNDER (66.7%) the total in week 2 since ‘05 ( 12.6 units, R.O.I.: 30%, Grade 62)

2019 Plays: UNDER in BUF-NYG, NO-LAR, SEA-PIT Analysis: This one is genuinely tough to explain… but its success is tough to argue. A strong 12-5 record over the last fve seasons has bumped this system up recently. Interestingly, the Saints & Rams both qualifed on this angle and will square off against one another.

7. Teams playing as underdogs in their second of back-to-back divisional games are 15-9-1 SU & 18-7 ATS (72%) in week 2 since ‘04 ( 10.3 units, R.O.I.: 41.2%, Grade 62)

2019 Plays: Play ON Oakland Analysis: This is basically the same as #5 above, only adding a line qualifer. The motivation of being an underdog to a divisional opponent provides the needed incentive for these week 2 dogs to pull the upset. This has been an outstanding money line system over the years as well, hitting at 62.5% on outright winners, so don’t ignore that betting option. Again, Green Bay was 1-point dog last year to Minnesota and wound up in a 29-29-tie, securing an ATS win. The Raiders are seeking a second straight upset win on Sunday.

8. Teams that lost their opening game on the road bounce back at a 40-27 SU & 41-25-1 ATS (62.1%) rate when playing at home in week 2 over the L9 seasons. ( 13.5 units, R.O.I.: 20.4%, Grade 62)

2019 Plays: Play ON Denver, Pittsburgh, Houston, Cincinnati, Washington, Atlanta, NY Giants Analysis: This system typically produces a lot of teams qualifying each season. Home openers can provide much needed incentive to turn some negative momentum around. This is a classic example of how oddsmakers trap bettors into thinking week 1’s results are the new norm. The six teams in this system in 2018 were 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS boosting the grade from 56 to 62. Interestingly, only one of the qualifers was a playoff team of a year ago, perhaps putting this system in a tougher spot for 2019???

9. Week 2 teams that went under their week 1 total by at least 17 points are 24- 12 OVER (66.7%) the total since ‘08 ( 11.8 units, R.O.I.: 32.7%, Grade 59)

2019 Plays: OVER in MIN-GB, CHI-DEN Analysis: These teams underachieved offensively in week 1, creating a situation where oddsmakers adjust their total downward too quickly. Early public perception says that these will be bad offenses in 2019. This system proves it’s too early to make that conclusion. There was only one game that went under the total by at least 17 points this season (GB-CHI), setting up two plays on this system for 2019.

10. Teams that lost as road favorites in week have bounced back with a record of 13-6 SU & 14-5 ATS (73.6%) in week 2 over the L7 seasons ( 8.5 units, R.O.I.: 44.7%, Grade 59) 2019 Plays: Play ON Denver Analysis: Week 1 road favorites are usually highly regarded teams. They have proven good enough to be able to bounce back from a loss in that game, in most cases avoiding a 0-2 start. Last year there were no qualifying plays on this angle. This year there is one, not counting Detroit, who tied last weekend as a road favorite.

11. Teams facing opponents that allowed 38 or more points in week 1 are 19-11 SU & 18-11-1 ATS (62.1%) coming back in week 2 since ‘02 ( 5.9 units, R.O.I.: 20.3%, Grade 54) 2019 Plays: Play ON New England, Houston, NY Jets Analysis: Playing against teams that came up bad defensively in week 1 is a good idea, as in many cases, the ground has already been laid for these being bet against teams for the season.

12. Teams that scored 35 points or more in week 1 are 22-14-2 OVER (61.1%) the total in week 2 since ‘07 ( 7.6 units, R.O.I.: 21.1%, Grade 54) 2019 Plays: OVER in IND-TEN, ARI-BAL, DAL-WAS, KC-OAK Analysis: Oddsmakers simply can’t put totals high enough on these teams as they get on an early season roll offensively. Momentum on that side of the ball is most often maintained by these teams.

13. Of the last 25 teams that were upset in week 1 divisional games, 16 have gone OVER (16-9, 64%) the total in week 2 ( 6.1 units, R.O.I.: 24.4%, Grade 52) 2019 Plays: OVER in CHI-DEN, CLE-NYJ Analysis: In most cases, these teams that were upset in Week 1 underperformed, especially offensively, and come back fying in Week 2. Such is the case for the Bears, Broncos, and Jets. Ironically, the Bears and Broncos were both upset in divisional games last week and will square off in week 2.

14. Teams whose opponent played in the weeknight season opening game and thus have extra rest are 12-16 SU but 17-10-1 ATS (63%) in week 2 since ‘05 ( 6.0 units, R.O.I.: 22.2%, Grade 52) 2019 Plays: Play ON Minnesota. Denver Analysis: Routine, Routine, Routine. Teams that play in the season opener are out of that typical routine, and most teams rely on that for peak performance throughout the season. Extra rest is Manscaped Manscaped offers precision engineered tools for your family jewels. Go to Manscaped.com and get 20% off with the code VSIN. Keeps Go to keeps.com/vsin for your free online doctor consultation and get your frst month of hair treatments for free. EightSleep It’s tough to sleep during a heat wave — and now there’s actually a bed that keeps you cool through the night, no matter how hot it is outside. It’s the Pod by EightSleep, with dynamic temperature regulation to enhance your rest and recovery. For $150 off, go to eightsleep.com/VSIN. PointsBet Special Pre-Season Football Offer from PointsBet: For every Saturday pre-season game, get 100 odds on spreads and totals. No Juice. Go to PointsBet.com and sign up now with the code VSINEM, and you’ll get two risk-free bets up to $1,000. VooDoo Cream You’ve heard Mitch and Pauly talk about how the cream helped them. Go to VooDooPainRelief.com and use the code “Pauly” to get a special discount for VSiN fans. Kenny White’s College Football Power Ratings 2019 This 332-page magazine is chock of insights into teams, players and conferences. Kenny White, a regular on VSiN, has ratings for every FBS and FCS team, plus more than 3,000 individual player power ratings. Kenny also predicts fnal scores for the 1,561 games in which an FBS team is involved. A print copy of Kenny’s College Football Power Ratings is available for purchase at kennywhitesports.com. It’s $29.99, but you can get it for $24.99 if you use the discount code vsin20off. FootballContest.com Get special offer on contest proxy. You don’t have to live in Nevada to enter the Las Vegas contests. Don’t miss out on the action, enter with the help of the most trusted, highly recommended proxy service used by Brent Musburger himself. SAVE $50 at FootballContest.com/VSiN. VSiN PROMOTIONS typically valued more at later parts in the season. This is a tough system to stomach usually, since it requires fading two of the better teams in the league.

15. Teams that recorded big week 1 divisional wins by 7 points or more are 20-13 SU & 18-11-2 ATS (62.1%) since ‘06 in week 2 ( 5.9 units, R.O.I.: 20.3%, Grade 52) 2019 Plays: Play ON Dallas, Green Bay, Oakland Analysis: Momentum created by a big divisional win in week 1 seems to carryover well into week 2. Both Tampa Bay & Kansas City came up with outright upset wins on this system last year.

16. Week 1 underdogs of 7-points or more that won ATS in their game are 9-10 SU & 10-6-3 ATS (62.5%) in week 2 since ‘06 ( 3.4 units, R.O.I.: 21.2%, Grade 50) 2019 Plays: Play ON Washington, Cincinnati Analysis: These teams might be better than oddsmakers and other so-called experts realize and it takes a while for those setting the numbers to adjust. Unlike last year when both qualifers were outright winners, the two qualifers for 2019 lost their week 1 games.

17. Teams that lost close games in week 1 (3 points or less) are 18-13 OVER (58.1%) the total in week 2 since ‘08 ( 3.7 units, R.O.I.: 11.9%, Grade 50) 2019 Plays: OVER in TB-CAR, JAC-HOU, SF-CIN, CLE-NYJ Analysis: As it has turned out lately, teams losing heartbreakers in week 1 have either slipped defensively in week 2 or gained an increased focus offensively. The two bookend games both qualify on this year’s list, with Tampa Bay-Carolina kicking off the weekend on Thursday, and the Browns & Jets wrapping it up on Monday night.

Good luck with your week 2 NFL plays!

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