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Super Bowl props numerous, valuable

By Steve Makinen  (Point Spread Weekly editor) 

Super Bowl Sunday offers a ton of prop betting options unavailable for the average NFL game. You can wager on specific play results, the timing of certain results, team and individual stats and plenty more. I’ll address the individual stats option, using some statistical forecasting methods I’ve learned over the years in studying sports data. Having been an oddsmaker for the last 10 years, I’ve used these methods in my submissions for some of the world’s most noteworthy sportsbooks. But the numbers herein are my own projections and were not offered to any other industry entity on either side of the counter.

I will start by projecting the scores, time of possession and yardage for Super Bowl LV, then expand into the individual players and their projected output based on these overall numbers. For enhanced accuracy, I have used only the last 10 meaningful games for each team, assuming the performances in that span were more indicative of the teams and the quality of opponents they faced. So I did not include the Chiefs’ Week 17 loss to the Chargers, as Kansas City rested a number of starters. Neither the betting line nor the result of that game was indicative of reality.

Let’s start by looking at some overall projections for the game, using my Effective Stats method as the basis for calculation. This method takes into account the team’s performance against weighted averages of its opponents. In other words, strength of schedule is built in.

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