Super Bowl Over/Under on the move

For over a week now, the Super Bowl 55 spread has remained frozen at Chiefs -3. This comes on the heels of the line opening at Chiefs -3.5 and falling to -3, which signaled some respected money grabbing the Bucs plus the hook (+ 3.5). While many of us have been glued to the current line wondering if it will move off the key number and tick back up, we quietly saw a sneaky big move on the Super Bowl total. Over the past 24 hours, the over/under has fallen from 56.5 to 56. Some books are even down to 55.5. The total originally opened at 57.5, meaning it has seen a steady diet of under money from the start. Historically, super high totals of 50 or more have gone 4-1 to the under in the Super Bowl over the past decade. Also, we may be looking at some inclement weather for the big game, as the updated forecast at Raymond James Stadium calls for 70 degrees with 5-10 MPH winds and possibly some rain. 

Super Bowl home | Betting guide | Expert picks | Biggest bets | Cross-sport props Point Spread Weekly

Now we turn our attention to Thursday, where we have another action packed betting menu filled with 5 NBA games, 8 NHL games and 25+  College Hoops matchups. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 12 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:45 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss some notable line moves and betting system matches for today's loaded NHL slate... 

7 p.m. ET: Vancouver Canucks (6-7) at Toronto Maple Leafs (7-2-1)

This North Division showdown features a pair of teams looking to rebound from losses. The line opened with Toronto listed as a -175 home favorite and it's quickly crept up to -180. Toronto matches several profitable betting systems this season, as home favorites are 62-20 (76%), home favorites of -150 or more are 30-5 (86%) and favorites off a loss are 36-11 (77%). The Leafs also possess a rest vs tired advantage, as Toronto last played on Saturday while Vancouver just played on Tuesday. Favorites with at least three days between games against teams playing with two or less days off are 8-2 (80%) this season. The Leafs are 3-1 at home while the Canucks are 2-5 on the road. We might be looking at a high scoring game in this one. The total is 6.5 with the over juiced up to -125. The over is 9-4 in Canucks games and 5-4-1 in Leafs games.

7 p.m. ET: Ottawa Senators (1-8-1) at Montreal Canadiens (7-1-2)

Talk about a mismatch. This David vs Goliath showdown north of the border features the top point getter in the NHL against the team with the fewest points in the league. The Canadiens opened as a -275 home favorite and have ballooned up to -300 or more. Montreal has value as a home favorite (62-20, 76% this season) and a big favorite of -200 or more (12-2, 86%). Also, favorites with a line move of 10-cents or more in their direction are 26-7 (79%). Montreal is + 17 in goal differential, best in the NHL. Ottawa is -24 in goal differential, worst in the NHL. The Habs are 3-1 at home while the Sens are 0-6 on the road. If the Canadiens price is a bit high for your liking, Montreal is -1.5 (-130) on the puck-line. The total is 6.5 with the over juiced up to -115. 

8 p.m. ET: Arizona Coyotes (3-5-1) at St. Louis Blues (7-2-1)

These West Division opponents played two nights ago the Blues won 4-3 as -160 home favorites. Tonight, St. Louis opened as a -160 home favorite and has crept up closer to -170. Home favorites are 62-20 (76%) this season and home favorites of -150 or more are 30-5 (86%). St. Louis is 3-1-1 at home this season while Arizona is 0-3 on the road. We might be in for a low scoring game here. The total is 5.5 with heavy -130 juice to the under. Ironically, both of these teams have gone over quite a bit this season, with Arizona 6-2-1 to the over and St. Louis 7-3. The over 5.5 is priced at a juicy + 110 payout. 

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