Super Bowl LVI: Where wiseguys are leaning

February 5, 2022 08:26 PM
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Sportsbooks and contrarian bettors cleaned up on Sunday, as dogs and Unders both went 2-0 ATS. Favorites and dogs are now 6-6 ATS in the postseason, while Unders have quietly gone 8-4.

In the AFC title game, the Bengals (+ 7) upset the Chiefs 27-24 in overtime. Cincinnati cashed + 270 on the moneyline. In the NFC title game, the Rams edged the 49ers 20-17, but San Francisco covered by the hook (+ 3.5). The Bengals’ outright win was huge for the books, killing countless moneyline parlays and teasers for the public, along with Chiefs futures and wagers on Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP. 

The big game is now here. Let's dive into how the line is moving along with some notable Super Bowl trends.

Los Angeles Rams (-4.5, 48.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Super Bowl LVI will be played at SoFi Stadium, home of the Rams, although Los Angeles is designated as the road team for this game.

Before Sunday’s conference championship games, the Rams (15-5 SU, 10-10 ATS) dominated the Cardinals in the wild-card round 34-11, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites, and then took down the Bucs 30-27 in the divisional round, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. The Bengals (13-7 SU, 13-7 ATS) defeated the Raiders 26-19, covering as 6-point home favorites, before upsetting the Titans 19-16 as 4-point road dogs. 

The Super Bowl line opened with the Rams listed as 3.5-point favorites. Early money has laid the points with the Rams, driving the line up to 4.5. At BetMGM, the Rams are receiving 58% of the bets and 67% of the money. Super Bowl teams with line movement in their favor are 11-5 ATS (69%) since 2004. At this point, the Bengals offer value as a contrarian dog with an inflated line in the most heavily bet game of the year. With Super Bowl ticket counts skyrocketing, the public lean toward Los Angeles creates buy-low value to back the unpopular dog.

Joe Burrow is 12-7 ATS (63%) in his career as a dog. The Bengals are 6-3 ATS as a dog this season, including 5-0 ATS when getting three points or more. Super Bowl dogs are 13-6 ATS over the last 19 matchups. When they're getting three points or more, they improve to 8-2 ATS. The Bengals are also in an ideal teaser spot (+ 4.5 to + 10.5), which goes through the key numbers of 7 and 10. 

We’ve also seen wiseguys target the Under, dropping the total from 49.5 to 48.5. This signaled a classic reverse line move to the Under as the total fell despite a majority of early bets (53%) taking the Over. Super Bowl Unders are 3-0 the past three seasons. When the total falls, the Under is 57% over the past decade in the postseason. The Bengals are 3-0 to the Under this postseason. The Rams are 2-1 to the Under. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the NFL in tempo and plays per game.

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