Super Bowl Sunday is finally here!
For extensive Super Bowl betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City. '
Also, don't miss our exclusive interview with Brent Musburger and Billy Walters at 12 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for Super Bowl LVI....
6:30 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams vs Cincinnati Bengals
Super Bowl LVI will be played at SoFi Stadium, home of the Rams, although Los Angeles is designated as the road team for this game.
The Rams (15-5 SU, 10-10 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 win over the 49ers in the NFC Championship game, although Los Angeles failed to cover as 3.5-point home favorites. Prior to that, Los Angeles dominated Arizona in the Wild Card round 34-11, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites, and then took down the Bucs 30-27 in the Divisional Round, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Bengals (13-7 SU, 13-7 ATS) just upset the Chiefs 27-24 in the AFC Championship game, winning outright as 7-point road dogs. Previously, Cincinnati defeated the Raiders 26-19 in the Wild Card round, covering as 6-point home favorites, and then upset the Titans 19-16 in the Divisional Round, winning outright as 4-point road dogs.
The Super Bowl line opened with the Rams listed as 3.5-point favorites. Early money laid the points with the Rams, driving the line up from Los Angeles -3.5 to -4.5. Since that time, we've seen substantial buyback on Cincinnati at the inflated +4.5, causing the line to fall back down to 4. Essentially, early money leaned Los Angeles while late money has been siding with Cincinnati.
The Bengals match several profitable betting systems. Super Bowl dogs are 6-4 straight up and ATS over the last decade and 13-6 ATS over the last 19 matchups. Super Bowl dogs getting three points or more are 8-2 ATS since 2008. The Bengals have won their last two postseason games as a dog. Joe Burrow is 12-7 ATS (63%) in his career as a dog. The Bengals are 6-3 ATS as a dog this season, including 5-0 ATS when getting three points or more. Cincinnati is also in an ideal teaser spot ( 4 to 10), which goes through the key number of 7.
We’ve also seen wiseguys target the Under, dropping the total from 49.5 to 48.5 early on. The total remained frozen at 48.5 for more than a week. Over the past 24-hours, we've seen some over buyback with many shops juicing the over 48.5 to -115, signaling a possible game-day rise to 49.
Super Bowl Unders are 3-0 the past three seasons. When the total is 48 or higher in the Super Bowl, the under is 6-2 since 2008. The under is 8-4 this postseason. When the total falls, the Under is 57% over the past decade in the postseason. The Bengals are 3-0 to the Under this postseason. The Rams are 2-1 to the Under. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the NFL in tempo and plays per game.
Ron Torbert, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (62-44 ATS, 58%) and slightly to the under (55-52, 51%).
Super Bowl MVP at BetMGM
Akers, Miller +3000