There are certain times of year when betting against the public increases in value. Whether it's March Madness in college basketball or bowl games in college football, the influx of public betting saturates the market with "herd mentality" bias that value-minded contrarian bettors can take advantage of. The ultimate spot for this line of thinking is, of course, the Super Bowl.
As we all know, the Super Bowl is the most heavily bet sporting event of the year by far, even more so now with the spread of legalized sports betting. Bettors may not have gotten down on the NFL all season long but will place a wager on the Super Bowl just to have some fun and join the party. The betting public will typically lean on the favorite and the Over, which provides value to going contrarian and sweating dogs and Unders. And, oh yeah, why do contrarians like to bet against the public? Because more often than not, the public loses.
Over the past decade, dogs are 6-4 SU and 6-4 ATS in the Super Bowl. If they're getting 3 points or more, they improve to 5-1 ATS.
Here is a breakdown of the last 10 Super Bowls: