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Super Bowl LV Opening Line Report: Early money leans Bucs and Under

January 25, 2021 12:46 AM

NFL Conference Championship Sunday saw dogs and favorites go 1-1 ATS and overs go a perfect 2-0. In the early game, Tom Brady led the Bucs (+ 3) to a 31-26 upset victory over the top-seeded Packers. Tampa Bay cashed + 155 on the moneyline. The Bucs saw line movement in their favor from start to finish. Tampa opened at + 4 and quickly got bet down to + 3.5 early in the week. Then on gameday we saw a handful of massive wagers get down on Tampa plus the hook, dropping the line down to 3. The one-sided movement proved victorious as Brady won yet another big game, earning his 10th trip to the Super Bowl and the first for Tampa Bay since 2002. With the Bucs' win and cover, dogs with a line move in their favor are now 4-1 ATS this playoffs and 15-3 ATS (83%) over the past four postseasons.

In the late game, the Chiefs (-3) rewarded chalk bettors with a dominant 38-24 win over the Bills. Kansas City never really moved off the key number of -3. Oddsmakers seemed to be simultaneously worried about handing out the hook to Bills backers (+ 3.5) and offering a -2.5 to Chiefs supporters for fear of being middled.

Both totals rose and went over. The Bucs-Packers total opened 51, closed 53.5 and landed on 57. The Bills-Chiefs total opened 50, closed 55 and landed on 62.

Today, a new betting week begins with 10 NBA games, 16 college basketball games and one NHL game. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 12 p.m. ET. I'll be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m ET to offer a market update. I'll also be joining Rush Hour at 7:45 p.m. ET to discuss early Super Bowl trends.

In the meantime, let's discuss the Super Bowl 55 Opening Line Report...

Sunday February 7 at 6:30 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

While Super Bowl 55 is technically played at a "neutral site," this will be a true home game for the Bucs (14-5 SU, 11-8 ATS) as it takes place at Raymond James Stadium. The Bucs become the first team ever to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium. The Chiefs (16-2 SU, 7-10-1 ATS) return to the Super Bowl for the second year in a row and look to become the first back-to-back champions since the Patriots in 2003-2004. Meanwhile, Brady aims to win his 7th ring. He is 6-3 in the Super Bowl in nine appearances. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a consensus 3.5-point favorite. Early money has come down on the Bucs getting the hook (+ 3.5), which has dropped most books down to the key number of 3. The Chiefs -3 is being juiced up to -120, signaling a possible rise back to 3.5. The hook could prove critical. Back in Week 12, the Chiefs beat the Bucs 27-24 but Tampa Bay covered as 3.5-point home favorites. Super Bowl teams with a line move in their favor are 3-0 ATS the last three Super Bowls.

We've also seen some under money come in. The total opened at 57.5, the highest ever for a Super Bowl, and has fallen to 56.5. Some books are even down to 56. The Bucs are 11-8 to the over this season. The Chiefs are an even 9-9 with over/unders. Over the past decade, there have been five Super Bowls with high totals of 50 or more. The under is 4-1.

One big injury to keep in mind here: Chiefs startling left tackle Eric Fisher left the AFC Championship game with an achilles injury and will likely miss the Super Bowl. With two weeks to rest and recover, the Bucs could return wide receiver Antonio Brown and safety Antoine Winfield Jr, while the Chiefs could welcome back receiver Sammy Watkins.

Updated Super Bowl MVP Odds via BetMGM

Mahomes + 120

Brady + 250

Hill + 900

Kelce + 1000

Edwards-Helaire + 1400

Fournette, Evans + 2000

Hardman + 2500

Bell, Watkins, Godwin, Jones, Mathieu + 3300

Brown + 4000

Gronkowski + 5000

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