Super Bowl LV between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers is finally here.
Our experts -- Adam Chernoff, Drew Dinsick, William Hill, Dave Tuley, Jonathan Von Tobel and Matt Youmans -- break down the biggest sports betting event of the year from every angle, offering their opinions on the side, total and their favorite prop bets.
Super Bowl LV: Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 56.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tuley: While I couldn’t pull the trigger on the underdog 49ers last year or the Rams the year before, I love the Buccaneers getting the + 3.5. If you have been unable to grab it yet, we hope it comes back over the weekend while the public loads up on the favored Chiefs. It’s obviously better to get the hook, but we’re also confident Bucs 3 (EVEN) is a strong play.
We could write chapter and verse about all the matchups and stats, but it comes down to the fact these teams are closer than a field goal in my power ratings and the game should be closer to pick-’em. I see this as ending up right around 27-24 either way, so I also like Under 56.5 and think all four teaser combinations could hit if you choose to play it that way. Let’s not forget that the Chiefs won the regular-season meeting 27-24, with the Buccaneers rallying to get the back-door cover as 3.5-point home underdogs. That was the game in which Mahomes and Tyreek Hill hooked up seven times for 203 yards and two TDs in the first quarter(!), yet the Buccaneers still covered. I see no reason this shouldn’t also be a back-and-forth game, with the SU and ATS results hanging in the balance late and the spread possibly coming into play.
Pick: Bucs + 3.5
Dinsick: It’s tough to ask for a better Super Bowl matchup. Both the Bucs and Chiefs bring superlative offenses, outstanding weapons and defensive stars and are fully deserving of their chance to win the Lombardi Trophy.
The market has settled in at a fair price of Chiefs -3, albeit a juicy 3 to back Kansas City. The moneyline suggests that the Chiefs have about a 60% chance to win, 40% for the Bucs to pull off the upset (KC -160 has a breakeven probability of 61.5% with a vig-free implied win probability of 59.6%). The total is at a sky-high 56 market-wide, making this the fourth Super Bowl in the last five years with a total in the 50s.