Super Bowl hangover for Kansas City? Don't bet on it

May 24, 2020 12:43 AM

At 24, Patrick Mahomes already has accomplished more than most NFL players could ever dream about. First-round draft pick. Super Bowl champion. Super Bowl MVP. Regular-season MVP. First-team All-Pro. Offensive Player of the Year. Two-time Pro Bowler. 

This weekend, Mahomes added another feather in his cap: Graduation commencement speaker.

In Saturday's virtual address to the Class of 2020 at his alma mater Texas Tech, Mahomes told the students to "go out and win your Super Bowl." 

Mahomes is entering his fourth season in the NFL and third season as the full-time starter. In his two full seasons under center, Mahomes has led Kansas City to a pair of 12-4 campaigns. The Chiefs finished 2019 with a 9-game winning streak that ended with their first Super Bowl championship in 50 years. 

In 2020, Kansas City hopes to avoid a Super Bowl hangover and become the first repeat champion since the Patriots in 2003 and 2004. The Chiefs look poised to defend their title, bringing back 20 of 22 starters from Super Bowl 54. The only departures include linebacker Reggie Ragland and guard Stefen Wisniewski. 

Sportsbooks like the Chiefs' chances to repeat. At DraftKings, Kansas City is the favorite to win the Super Bowl at + 600. The Chiefs are also the favorite to win the AFC at + 280 and a -400 favorite to win the AFC West. The division is such a lopsided bet that the rest of the teams are a distant longshot (Broncos + 800, Chargers + 900 and Raiders + 1000).

Kansas City's regular season win total is 11.5, tied with the Ravens for the highest of any team in the NFL. However, unlike Baltimore's win total being juiced heavily to the under (-125 at FanDuel), Kansas City's win total is being juiced heavily to the over. This indicates a combination of heavy public and pro money on the over, with house liability on the Chiefs winning 12 or more games for the third season in a row.

At FanDuel, the Chiefs over 11.5 wins is -125 (under + 105). PointsBet is 11.5 over -125 (under + 100). Circa Sports is 11.5 over -115 (under -105). DraftKings is a bit of an outlier with 11.5 under -121 (over + 100). 

Kansas City doesn't have much to worry about in terms of strength of schedule. The Chiefs have the 14th-easiest schedule overall. Their 2020 opponents were the definition of average last season, going 128-128 (.500). 

Here's the Chiefs full schedule

Week 1: vs Texans

Week 2: at Chargers 

Week 3: at Ravens

Week 4: vs Patriots

Week 5: vs Raiders

Week 6: at Bills

Week 7: at Broncos

Week 8: vs Jets

Week 9: vs Panthers

Week 10: Bye

Week 11: at Raiders

Week 12: at Bucs

Week 13: vs Broncos

Week 14: at Dolphins

Week 15: at Saints

Week 16: vs Falcons

Week 17: vs Chargers

Kansas City is a shoo-in for the postseason. The Chiefs are a -850 favorite to make the postseason at FanDuel (+ 560 dog to miss the postseason). 

Oddsmakers expect Mahomes to light it up again in 2020. He is the favorite to win MVP at + 380. His over/under passing yards is 4,499.5 with -112 juice on both sides. His over/under passing touchdowns is set at 35.5 with -112 juice on both sides. 

In another case of the rich getting richer, Kansas City drafted LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the last pick in the first round. Edwards-Helaire is + 500 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, trailing only Joe Burrow + 220.

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