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Super Bowl appetizers: UFC and NHL

February 6, 2021 12:10 AM

Today, Super Bowl weekend kicks off with a loaded appetizer of 100-plus college basketball games, 11 NBA games and 6 NHL games. For extensive Saturday betting analysis, be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher, Mike Palm, Thomas Gable and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups, the top lines moves and breaking down late sharp action across all the major sports.

In addition to today's multiple cross-sport sweats we also have UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Volkov at the APEX in Las Vegas. Let's discuss some of the top line moves across the 13-bout card...

Alexander Volkov vs Alistair Overeem

This main event showdown features two of the fiercest heavyweights in the UFC. We've seen a distinct line move toward the favorite Volkov (32-8), who has moved from -177 to -200. Volkov has two notable advantages over Overeem (47-18). Volkov is younger (32 vs 40) and taller (6-6 vs 6-3). Overeem is 15 pounds heavier (265 vs 250) but Volkov has a longer leg reach (47-5 vs 44.5). We've also seen some over money show up. The total rounds opened at 1.5 and has risen to 2.5 with over juiced to -125.

Cody Stamann vs Askar Askar

This Featherweight brawl on the main card features the most lopsided odds of the night. Stamann (19-3-1) opened as a -450 favorit and has ballooned up to -510. Askar (11-1) is the younger fighter (26 vs 31), one inch taller (5-6 vs 5-5) and has a longer reach (69 inches vs 64.5). But the kryptonite here for Askar is the fact he was a late replacement and he is going up in weight to fight Stamann. If the favorite price on Stamann is too steep for your liking, the over has taken in some money, moving from 2.5 over -230 to -235. Roughly 60% of Stamann's wins have come via decision.

Devonte Smith vs Justin Jaynes

This Catchweight showdown takes place on the preliminary card. This line opened with Smith (10-2) listed as a -280 favorite and heavy chalk money has driven the line up to -320 or more. Smith checks off several boxes over Jaynes (16-6). Smith is younger (27 vs 31), taller (5-8 vs 5-6) and has a massive reach advantage (76 vs 68). Jaynes is at a bit of a disadvantage as he is taking this fight on short notice. We could also be looking at a short bout. The total is 1.5 rounds and the under juiced has moved from -175 to -180. Roughly 90% of Smith's wins have come quickly by knockout or TKO.

Lara Procopio vs Molly McCann

Thus Flyweight matchup is on the preliminary card. It's also one of the few fights where we've seen a substantial move toward the underdog. McCann (10-3) opened as a -165 favorite but has slipped to -135. This was a result of some respected money grabbing Procopio (6-1), who has moved from + 140 to + 115. Both fighters are the same in terms of height and weight, but Procopio is younger (25 vs 30) and has a much longer reach (67.5'' vs 62''). We could also be looking at a longer fight. The total is 2.5 rounds and the over juice has moved from -325 -360.

More Line Moves

Timur Valiev -330 to -400 vs Martin Day

Karol Rosa -200 to -225 vs Joselyne Edwards

Frankie Edgar-Corey Sandhagen Over 2.5 (-180 to -220)

Manel Kape-Alexandre Pantoja Under 2.5 (-130 to -150)

BONUS NHL

1 p.m. ET: Montreal Canadiens (7-2-2) at Ottawa Senators (2-8-1)

The Senators just shocked the Canadiens 3-2 on Thursday night, winning as massive + 260 underdogs. The Canadiens look to bounce back and exact some revenge in this early afternoon rematch. Montreal has moved from -240 to -260. Favorites off a loss are 38-12 (76%) this season. Big favorites -200 or more are 14-3 (82%). A favorite with a line move of ten-cents or more in their favor are 28-9 (76%).

3 p.m. ET: Arizona Coyotes (4-5-1) at St. Louis Blues (7-3-1)

The Coyotes just upset the Blues 4-3 on Thursday night, cashing as + 150 road dogs. The Blues opened this matinee rematch as -150 home favorites and have crept up to -155. St. Louis matches several profitable betting systems this season. The Blues are a favorite off a loss (38-12, 76%), a home favorite (66-23, 74%) and a home favorite -150 or more (31-6, 84%). Oddsmakers also seem to have liability on a lower scoring game. The total is 5.5 and the under is -125.

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