Week 2 of the NFL is unofficially referred to as "overreaction week." Because the betting public only has one game of film to go off of, Average Joes fall in love with teams that played well in Week 1 and automatically fades teams who played poorly. This leads to teams being grossly overvalued or undervalued depending on their debut performance. Savvy, experienced bettors know that it isn't as simple as just going off what we saw last week. Instead, the idea is to capitalize on public recency bias by buying low and sell high on Week 1 snap judgments.
Overall, we have 14 NFL games to bet on today. We also have 1 NBA game and 16 MLB games. Let's discuss three NFL matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.
For more Sunday analysis and betting updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and breaking down late sharp action across MLB, NBA, NHL and more.
1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-1)
This matchup features the biggest and most dramatic line movement of Week 2. The Rams came up huge for sharps in Week 1, beating Dallas 20-17 on Sunday Night Football. Los Angeles cashed as a contrarian home dog with massive reverse line movement (+ 3 down to a pick'em). Meanwhile, the Eagles are coming off a disappointing 27-17 loss to Washington in which they blew a 17-0 lead, losing straight up at 5.5-point favorites. This line opened with the Eagles listed as 3-point home favorites. The public is all over the Rams off a big win and happy to fade the Eagles off a bad loss. With three out of four bets backing the Rams, the line flipped all the way from Eagles -3 to Rams -1.5. But then sharps bought back on Philly at home, pushed the Eagles from + 1.5 back to -1.5. Essentially, Philadelphia is a rare contrarian favorite with a deflated late and late reverse line movement. The public is backing the Rams, but sharps are fading the trendy dog. Philadelphia will get a boost with the healthy return of running back Miles Sanders and tackle Lane Johnson.
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1 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at Dallas Cowboys (0-1)
Both of these NFC teams are coming off disappointing losses in Week 1. The Falcons fell to the Seahawks at home as 1-point favorites while the Cowboys lost to the Rams 20-17 on the road as a pick'em on Sunday Night Football. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 6-point home favorite. Sharps quickly sided with the Falcons getting the points and have kept hitting Atlanta all week even though the line has continued to drop. Atlanta has fallen from + 6 all way to + 3.5. We might also be in for a high scoring game. The total opened at 51 and has been bet up to 53.5. One big injury to monitor here: Cowboys start tackle Tyron Smith is questionable with a neck injury.
8:20 p.m. ET: New England Patriots (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0)
This Sunday Night Football showdown features two Super Bowl contenders coming off impressive Week 1 wins. The Patriots christened in the Cam Newton era with a 21-11 win over the Dolphins, covering as 7-point home favorites. The Seahawks torched the Falcons 38-25, easily winning and covering as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public is leaning on the Seahawks at home and roughly two-thirds of bets are laying the points. This lopsided support has pushed the line briefly up to Seattle -4.5. That's when we see some sharp buyback on the Patriots + 4.5, which has since dropped the line back down to 4. The hook (+ 4.5) could end up being critical for New England backers. Essentially, we're looking at a sharp line feeze for New England. The Patriots have value as a contrarian dog in what will be the most heavily bet game of the day.
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More notable NFL Line moves
Lions-Packers Over 47 to 50
Broncos-Steelers Under 43 to 40.5
49ers-Jets Under 43.5 to 41.5
Vikings-Colts Over 46 to 49
Bucs -7.5 to -8.5 vs Panthers
Jags + 10 to + 7.5 vs Titans
Ravens-Texans Under 52.5 to 49.5
Chiefs -7 to -8.5 at Chargers
Chiefs-Chargers Under 50 to 47.5