Sunday Sharp Action Report for Bucks-Heat, Padres-Athletics and Rockets-Lakers

September 6, 2020 01:00 AM

For the second consecutive day, NBA playoff dogs and unders swept the board. Dogs went 2-0 ATS and straight up on Saturday. The Raptors (+ 2) upset the Celtics 100-93 to even their series at two games apiece. Boston was the recipient of some major sharp action moving from + 2 to -2 but it was all for naught as Toronto cashed + 115 on the moneyline. In the late game, the Nuggets (+ 9.5) shocked the Clippers 110-101 to even up their series 1-1. Los Angeles opened -8.5 and got pushed to -9.5 but ended up losing straight up. Denver cashed + 375 on the moneyline. Dogs are now 9-1 ATS in Round 2. 

Unders also went a perfect 2-0 on Saturday. Unders are also 9-1 this round and 15-3 over the past week. Unders are 31-21 (59.6%) this playoffs. 

Today, we have a loaded slate with 2 NBA games, 1 NHL game and 15 MLB games. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.  

For more Sunday analysis and betting updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and breaking down late sharp action across MLB, NBA, NHL and more. 

3:30 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat

This is Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Heat lead 3-0 and have a chance to eliminate the Bucks with a victory this afternoon. Miami opened as a 2-point favorite. This is the first time the Heat have been favored all series. Previously, Milwaukee was -5, -5.5 and -5. The public says the Heat are the better team based on the eye test, posting wins (and covers) of 115-104, 116-114 and most recently 115-100. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points, this line has remained frozen at Miami -2. Some books have even briefly dipped to -1.5 or -1. This signals liability on the side of the Bucks in a must-win game. Milwaukee has rare contrarian value in a buy-low spot. Sharp money has also leaned on the under, dropping the total from 220 to 219. The under is 2-1 this series. If you believe in miracles, the Bucks are + 770 to come back and win the series at BetMGM. The Heat are -1250 favorites. 

4:10 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (24-17) at Oakland Athletics (23-13)

These Interleague foes have split the first two games of the series, with the Padres winning the opener 7-0 and the Athletics winning 8-4 last night. In today's rubber game, the Padres send out Garrett Richards (1-2, 4.63 ERA) while the Athletics counter with Mike Fiers (4-1, 4.86 ERA). This line opened at a pick'em price with both teams listed at -105. We've seen some smart money back the road Padres, pushing San Diego up from -105 to -112. Pro money has also leaned on the under, with the total of 9.5 being juiced to under -115. The Padres are 18-9 against righties this year and 17-12 as a favorite. The A's are 0-4 as a dog. 

8:30 p.m. ET: Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers

The Rockets stole the series opener 112-97 as 6.5-point dogs to take a 1-0 series lead. This Game 2 line opened with Los Angeles listed as 5.5-point favorites. Despite Houston dominating the opening game, the public still believes in the Lakers in a bounce-back spot. However, despite roughly two-thirds of bets laying the points, this line hasn't budged. This signals a sharp line freeze on the dog, with pros leaning on Houston plus the points. We've also seen the total dip slightly from 224.5 to 224, signaling some under respected money. Despite losing the first game, the Lakers are still a -223 favorite to win the series. The Rockets are + 180. 

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